What To Focus On - Part Two

My blog of November 27th was entitled "What to Focus On". Please read it. This week we are feeling a bit of a hangover. Last's weeks triple witching event is over. Stocks that were forced to contract in price to sqeeze out spectatate positions on them are now free to resume there old trading patterns. This Monday morning at 10:20 a.m. the Djia is up 301 points. There are also losers. So now what? Mark on your calendar exactly three months down the road how the markets traded on the first morning after one of these triple witching events and use this same logic to catch the upside on the next "hangeover" day like this. How do you pick the winners? Find a few stocks that have enjoyed a recent upswing and play them to pop on the first trading session after one of these events. This blog is just an observation.

Could You Play Disney Calls Last Friday After The Stock Jumped, Hoping For Another Bounce On Friday Morning ?

Here is how Disney traded on Thursday. It has been a dog of a stock for years for a hundred different reasons. It also has a hundred different moving parts which when dissected could unleach value. It could be a $200.00 stock by this time next year. So after looking at this chart do you think and second wave of buying might be in the cards on it's Friday morning opening? Would buying Calls be wise, Calls that expire the very next day?
Can you see how the $110 Calls closed at $1.21 on Thursday after a wild ride all that day. Notice the closing "open interest". It's less than ten percent of the volume of the daily trading volume. That tells us that most of the traders don't want to take the risk to be in the game. Would you expect a Friday morning pop and would the $110.00 series be the one's to play? Here is the answer. First the chart of Friday's trading.
Now here is what the $110.00 Calls did on the day.
If you think next weeks Calls are more promising here is how they closed out the day on Friday. It's something to think about. The 30 day out Calls or longer might be better.
Disney was up smartly on the week. Do your research as to why.** A late Monday morning update, Feb 12th. Would you have the guts to hold onto your Call option over the weekend hoping for a second way of buying power to come in?
The options more than doubled.


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