Showing posts from March, 2023


Why Not To Buy Not Rivian Calls With Two Days to Go?

It's obvious right? If you mess up and the stock opens the wrong way you only have one day for a rebound. Why put yourself in that position? Others might be in the camp of saying why not go for a fifty percent rebound on Thurday's morning opening. The stock sold of on Wednesday on very little volume. A morning pop is possible. The stock has being strong as of late. Here is it's five day chart. Now this, the seventeen series of Calls that expires in two days. They do look cheap after hitting a high of $1.55 on the day. If we look at a 30 day chart we will see that the stock is still in an uptrend. Why not look at the Call options one and two weeks out? Here are the seventeen series of Calls one and two weeks out They would be much safer to play and I will check in on these ones at a later date. So what happened on the Thursday opening? Let's switch gears for a moment and look at how Roku, a much higher priced stock opened and look at how their Call options moved.

Cat Calls

Caterpillar Calls with one day go and Caterpillar Puts with one day to go. Boeing Calls and Puts with one day to go. Both stocks have had massive unbated run ups in the last five days trading sessions. Now lets look at the Caterpillar Call and Puts options at Thursday's close going into Friday. These are the Calls and Puts that expire tomorrow. The premiums on these option contracts are at slightly elevated levels given the volatility in the trading of these options over the last few trading sessions. Will this be another day, like most in the recent past where these stocks gain one to three dollars? This is to rich a game for me to play. It was a good game to be in during the last few days. Let's start with the Caterpillar Calls. The premiums on the Cat 225 Calls don't make sense. At $1.60 per contract thay are .46 cents "out-of-the-money" meaning the stock would have to jump to $227.04 just to break even. That's crazy expensive. The Puts also are no bargai

Rivian and Dream Machines

So Rivian shares have dropped. What a dream machine they have built. But wait, they also are hooked in with Amazon and they are providing them with electric trucks. Now look at this. Their number of employees. How would you get to this level of employees if you were not onto something good? Look at how they have more employees than many of their piers. Yet there is a risk to the stock's price if they were to suddenly announce that they are laying off a thousand or so workers. Amazon is using a number of their delivery trucks and it's obviously a learning curve for both of them. How well are they built and will they prove to be problem free? Rivian still has to prove the quality is there. Then there is also the issue that G.M. has leaped ahead of them and is busy shipping out these electric trucks from Canada with a 250 mile range .G.M. has deep pockets and their factory for exclusively this product is up and fully operational. On a different note the truck company Lordstown

The Concept Of Playing Caterpillar Calls From An Oversold Situation

There is a danger in playing oversold situations. How do you truly know it's oversold? Well last week there was a total blowout in the markets as it kept dropping everyday. Each day last week was a blur to the downside. What are weekends all about? They are a reprieve in situations like this from all of this negative energy. Thing's can't go down forever. Here is Caterpillar's most recent chart. So this morning, with fresh minds coming to the screens an uptick could be in sight. I would think so, I watched this mornings action. Look at these printouts. I was tracking one of the series of Caterpillar's Calls. It was lonely experience. Few people were watching this action, or lack of action. There were no trades in this series of Calls in the first few minutes and the speads were far apart. Where was the rebound? Look at this.. "> Wow. Only 2 contracts traded 9 minutes after the opening bell and 31 contracts traded in the 225 Calls an hour into the trading

Part Two of Why Tesla Is An Easy Stock To Blog About

I will try and make this blog as simple as possible. My question is would you be buying a slightly "out-of-the-money" Call option on Telsa at 3:59:57 p.m. on a Thursday afternoon that expires the next day after the D.J.I. has dropped over 500 hundred points on the day and after Telsa dropped over nine dollars on the day? Has anyone ever asked you that before? Would doing so be out of your comfort zone? As a backdrop to this question you might want to read my last blog. Look at this. It's the one day chart showing how Tesla traded on the day on Friday March 10th, a day when the D.J.I. end up closing down again over 300 points.Talk about rough markets. After it's previous days demise of over nine dollars a share it actually went up a touch in the morning opening and then drifted sideways for the rest of the day. The "out-of-the-money" 172.50 Calls closed on Thurday (the day before) at $2.97 a contract. Now look at this printout showing how they reached a hig

The Essence of Short Term Trading. Telsa and Caterpillar

First, let me point out that the stock Telsa was the most actively traded stock on the Nasdaq for the week by both dollar volume and by share volume. It attracted a lot of attention. So did the Call and Put options trading on it. Let me show you something, a printout of one series of Call options on Telsa at 3:03 p.m. on Thursday afternoon. The Telsa 190 Calls which were set to expire on it the next day. Talk about action. Note that going into the final hour of trading 152,000 contracts had traded on this series of Calls. It's a crazy high number. It would seem as if traders where hoping for a rebound. A rebound from selling off like twelve dollars in one day! Why you might ask did it sell off $12.00 in one day? I wasn't following the action all that closely however what I was learning is that Musk held a conference call the day before and listeners where somewhat disappointed with his plans on moving forward. There is always news on Telsa. That's why it's options hav

HD Harley. LiveWire Group (symbol LVWR)

Electric motorcycles. It's a new field. Companies in India and China are now making them. So Harley Davidson has decided to spin off a new company to start producing them. It's wise to place that operation in a new name. New money comes just on the strenght of the Harley name and the company gets to wander off in a new direction to tinker on something new. It's called "LiveWire Group". Symbol "LVWR". But wait, lets be blunt. There are start up cost and learning curves. They are taking a go slow approach keeping guidance numbers low. Model offerinsg down the road a few years from now will probably be more disireable. It is doubtful that the early models will prove to be collectable. Learning curves will be for everyone, since if you are out on the street you may not hear one pulling up next to you. A motorcycle with no noise. Some bikers would find this new reality strange. Would they be as much fun to operate if they are silent? Read the reviews online.