Showing posts from November, 2023


What To Focus On - Part Two

My blog of November 27th was entitled "What to Focus On". Please read it. This week we are feeling a bit of a hangover. Last's weeks triple witching event is over. Stocks that were forced to contract in price to sqeeze out spectatate positions on them are now free to resume there old trading patterns. This Monday morning at 10:20 a.m. the Djia is up 301 points. There are also losers. So now what? Mark on your calendar exactly three months down the road how the markets traded on the first morning after one of these triple witching events and use this same logic to catch the upside on the next "hangeover" day like this. How do you pick the winners? Find a few stocks that have enjoyed a recent upswing and play them to pop on the first trading session after one of these events. This blog is just an observation.

Why The Stupidest Trade in Tesla Would Have Made Money And Other Things

It takes a one day four or five dollar move on Tesla to make a decent gain on a mid week move in Call or Put options on this stock. Here is one example. It's all about a technical break out if you believe in that kind of stuff. This action has being going on for years and some traders are very good at playing it. Let's start by looking at this chart. It's not however a mid-week snapshot of Telsa. This is a chart of how Tesla traded last Friday morning. Yes you could be playing one day options on it (options that expire at 3:00 p.m. that afternoon). In this case get in around 10:30 a.m. and out at 12:01 p.m.That's mad money trading and is a different animal to be playing than mid week options on Tesla. It's mad money because if I said around 10:00 a.m. and out at around 12:01 p.m. the outcome would have being entirely different. So today is Wednesday November 29th and here is a mid afternoon look at how Tesla is trading. Wednesdays are often days of a market reversa

What To Focus On

Last week the top ten most actively traded stocks on the NYSE, Volume percent Leaders were in order, Beachbody (BODY), ProphyAqn, M3-Bridage, ApolloStrallA,TelecomArgentina, ConstellationA, Xperi, YPF, SilverBoxLLLA and CementoPacasm. All these names were new to me. The top ten on the Nasdaq, once again Volume percent leaders where AuroraTech, MorphoSys, iRobot, FocusImpact, Creud, CleanEatha, .... well you get the point. When you daytrade you should only have a handfull of names you feel comfortable trading. Forget all of the most active hype. Guess how much Ford was up last week? .14 cents on the week. What about Nio, the Chinese EV company so many people are trading? It was up 1 cent on the week. Lucid was down 1 cent and Apple was up .28 cents. With movements this small how can traders make any money? Last week I tracked both Ford and Deere Call options. Deere was off $19.96 on the week and Boeing was up $11.96. Pick names like this and follow their stories. Learn to play

Deere, A New Problem

Good morning to the markets on Nov 22nd 2023. Read the news. Might this stock dip further? So guess what? Caterpillar dropped in sympathy with this news. Now what? Income was up 43% in fiscal 2023. That's an amazing accomplishment. Did they upset the apple cart in shouting out their guidance for next year? Their new 2024 projections have a shock value to them and will take some time to digest. But wait, here is a new way to look at it. If the stock starts to go sideways over the next couple of months every tidbit of new news with be an event to celebrate. What a clever way to throw cold water on a hot earning report. PART TWO OF THIS BLOG. What's going to happen to this weeks Call options? Will traders now start to jump back in? Here is how the Call options are now set up. First the Calls with a $360.00 striking price that expire this Friday which is two days away. * the markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. Now the Calls with a $360.00 striking price one week out.

Ford and The Issue of Paying Commissions on Ford Option Trades.

This blog cost me like $35.00 to post but I am doing it to make a point. In the U.S. you can trade options for free but not in Canada. The example I am about to show you illustrates how Canadian option traders are treated unfairly, to the point of preventing us from trading in one very lucrative segment of the option market. I have talked about this before. To what am I referring? Trading options priced at one dollar to twenty dollars. Here is one example of what I am talking about. So I bought one Call for $17.00 U.S. plus a hefty commission. What a dumb trade to make. Today is Tuesday and it expires this Friday. On Thursday the markets are closed for Thanksgiving and they are closed half the day on Friday. Time in this position will quickly become a concern. Yet Friday mornings can sometimes suprise. Here is some news that caused it to drop. Ford frequently has news and here is what the one day chart looks like. Was it bad news? Not really. They are committed to building a plant

Caterpillar Calls. Our last Blog Was About Caterpillars Calls A Week Ago Last Friday. Here We Are Now Talking About The Same Thing.

The open interest numbers in Caterpillar Calls last week was negligible. Here is a look at the Caterpillar 237.5O Calls at 12:14 P.M. a week ago Friday. Look at the open interest number. It's next to nothing. Now here is a look at one series of Caterpillar calls, this time the 250 Calls at 11:53 A.M. last Friday Nov 17th. They were up over 300% in that morning's trading action and the stock was up $16.00 in one week! What I find so strange is that so few traders were using Call options to catch this strong directional move. The surge in the stocks price was afterall one of the largest "one week" surges this year. All of the short term, mid term and long term Call options exploded upwards in price. Here is a look at the Caterpillar 250 Calls at 11:23 a.m. which where to expire that same day. Yes the open interest numbers were up a touch however they were still next to nothing. Here now is a five day look at it's trading. Now a 30 day look at this stock. So wh

Lets Start With Caterpillar Calls On A Friday Afternoon at 12:08 p.m..

Now this. Call options which expire later in the day. Now later. Well actually one hour and sixteen minutes later. Now Telsa. Now Telsa later. Now Boeing with a first look starting at 1:22 p.m.. Now thirty minutes later. It's still stuck. Now for a look at what the markets were doing when we first started this exercise. Now a look at the markets at 2:00 p.m. about two hours later. It's turning out to be a strong day. It's two p.m. Some options have doubled since lunch time. Time to exit. Things can get screwy towards the 3.00 pm. deadline for retail investors to get out of option positions. This is a Friday only rule on all options that expire that day. They want you out so that your positions do not gt exercised.Check back later over the weekend to see how these options ended up closing out. Friday Call option trading is not for the weak of heart but it can be a profitable adventure if there is strenght in the markets around lunch time. Now here are the three en

The Concept of Buying Options on Stocks in the Two and Three Dollar Range. Polestar and GoPro

It's all about leverage and successfully predicting which way a stock is going to move. Guess right and you will win big. Yet wait, why not just purchase the stock and put it away and hope that it's going to go up? That makes more sense. Stocks in the two and three dollar price range can be extremely difficult to play, let alone playing options on them. Let's look at two of these stocks. First Polestar. It has an earnings report call coming out later this week. Take some time and listen to it.. ANOTHER STOCK IN THE LOW PRICE RANGE IS GO PRO. It has struggled over the years. There are reasons to think that the company could be changing it's business model. Now it's chart. Now it's one year out Calls with a three dollar striking price. Brian McGee seems excited. Future income streams is something that adds value to a cause. One year is a long time out in the future. Yet then again if you like stocks in this price range just buy the stock and not it's op