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How To Avoid Time Value Traps With Last Week Options.

This blog is not going to be an exhausting study of this topic. I just want to show you a few charts found in recent blogs and comment on which ones seem to skirt the issue of "time-value-concerns' and which ones don't. 1) Avoid Thursday at the close Call options. In this case Thursday is the second last day of the above chart. If you guess the wrong direction on the close it's going to be game over on Friday when the options expire. Thursday at the close on options that expire the next day are the biggest time value traps you can buy into. If the stock moves in the wrong direction it's game over. 2) Ford on a Monday going into Tuesday. On this chart April 13th is a Monday and Tuesday is the 14th. Can you see Ford closing strong on the close of the 13th? It would make sense to get in on the stong closing because these Calls would still have four trading days to recover if Tuesdays opening was not all that spectacular. 3) This time it's Caterpillar and it...

Tesla Options Near the Close on Friday Afternoon. Building A Case For Making A High Risk Trade.

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Tesla was up 11% in the last five days. Look at it's one and five day charts. ... Now here are one series of it's Call and one series of it's Put options with only 42 minutes of trading life remaining in them. Might these Calls rebound back upwards towards the closing? Afterall the D.J.I.A. is up almost 900 points on the day and this is one of the hottest stocks all week. The 400 series of Call options at this time are "in-the-money" by $.72, and are priced at $1.88. That's a premium of $1.16 over the striking price. Imagine all of the money lost by the existing 400 series of Call option holders in the last 60 minutes! Couldn't the stock now rebound two or three dollars in the blink of an eye? It did afterall once again just drop over $5.00 a share in the last hour of trading and it now seems to be holding steady. That's the carrot now dangling in front of everyones eyes. Is it time for a quick flip? If you have made twenty or thirty option trades on ...

Is Boeing Doing a Swan Dive?

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The company is running on all cylinders. It has more orders than it can handle. Now look at how it is trading on the opening. There seems to be selling pressure on good news. The D.J.I.A. is not doing very much and it's a Thursday at 11:00 a.m. Now a personal thought. Thursday morning are one of the worst time of the week to be looking at Call options that expire on the next day. Period. That said, look at these "in-the-money" Boeing Calls that expire tomorrow. Buying "in-the-money" Calls on a falling stock can be a heart-rendering experience. . Now let's move forward by about forty eight minutes. What do you think could be happening? Charts like this can now start to wander. These could be dangerous options to be in. Now this, an end of day reading. Let me first ask you a question? Do you think Boeing will go up tomorrow? Might it do the impossible and jump up five dollars on the day? What I forgot to mention that the next series of Calls on it higher u...

Going Out On A Limb. Exxon Calls.

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Let's start with this. A five dollar drop is one of the biggest drops in days. These Calls don't have the strenght of Calls purchased at the close on Fridays which then give you the advantage oil prices shifting over weekend discontent. Let's see what happens. Now a Wednesday report. There was no real bounce back up however the D.J.I.A. sold off at the end of the day. The 148 series of Calls hit a high of $2.95 and closed at $2.09 with the stock off 23 cents on the day. Trying to follow the Strait of Hormuz news is never easy to do and thousand of troops could be sitting ducks if things suddenly catch fire. One or two ships getting bombed would set off panic. These Calls still have two full days of life in them and anything could happen. These short term options are really a play on Trumph messing up.To be continued. Now this on Thursday morning. $1.99 to $4.30. Yes you can play these options. Trump wasn't going to solve his problems in a few days. This was a case ...

Ford Is Expected To Open Lower

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Let's jump right in. It's Monday morning and here is how the 12 series of Ford Calls that are expiring this coming Friday are starting the week. The "bid-and-ask" on the stock was down about $.05 cents in the premarkets. The markets are sometimes slow to get going after a weekend. If the stock opened lower in sympathy with the markets opening lower, how low could this $.27 premium trade down to? Would they then be a good buy if they dropped to like $.19? They do afterall still have five full days of trading like left in them. Now this, today's action. It was nothing to crazy. The stock only moved up $.03 or three cents on entire the day. This printout is not pretty but it tells you a lot of stuff. 1) The low of the day. It was $.11 or eleven dollars a contract at around 11 a.m. Yes the stock sputtered a touch, then it moved up again. 2) Look at the high of the day, $.27 or twenty seven dollars a contrct which is over a double from the low of the day. 3) I am not...

Will The Markets Top Out?

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The Nasdaq Composite index closed up 4.7% on the week. the S&P 500 index, was up 3.6% and the D.J.I.A.was up 3%. Given the elevated volatility levels options have become extremely expensive to buy. Here for example is how Avis Budget traded on Friday. At one point in the day the 300 series of Calls traded as high as $15.43 on the day. The stock never traded much ovee the $302.00 range. What an exorbitant premium forming part of this equation. ........ Now look at the prices on this week's upcoming Calls and Puts. ... What happened to the old days of paying $5.00 or $6.00 for one week out options on stocks in this price range? Look at how Caterpillar jumped on the week on no real news? Up like $83.00 from it's low of the week back on a Monday. Here now is what a one week out just slightly "out-of-the-money" 790 series of Puts is trading at. That's not as bad as the premiums on Avis Budget but look at Caterpillar's thirty day chart. Actually the stoc...

"End Of The Day" Friday Option Trading On Tesla

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Back on April 2nd I did a blog called "Two Hour End Of Week Option Trading on Tesla". In that blog it was noted that Tesla dropped in price starting at 1:30 p.m. and 42 minutes later it was $5.95 lower in price, approaching the "must-get-out" at 3:00 p.m. mandated option deadline. Put option buyers getting in around 2:00 p.m. did well on their investments. (The stock was down $20.67 on the day). Here was it's chart on that day. It was a Thursday with Friday being Good Friday. Now let's fast forward to today's action, it being the following Friday. Tesla options had a tough start to the day. Here an example of what I am talking about. Look at the 347.50 series of Calls at 12:34 p.m. Are you able to see how they are down in price on the day? Down and dangerously "out-of-the-money". Now this. A look at how these same options closed out the day. They charged back upwards towards the close. The $140.00 option price we were looking at below is act...