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One Day Puts On The Stock Eli Lilly At 2.31: p.m. On A Thursday Afternoon

The DJIA is up something like 850 points on the day. Eli Lilly has jumped $50.00 on the day. Happy days are here again. If the markets cool on the opening tomorrow (Friday) could the stock give up some of these gains? If so what would these Puts do? Might the stock give up 25% of what it gained today? Now it's five day and one day chart. $850.00 for a Put on a stock that has jumped up over $50.00 in one day. It's a Put that expires tomorrow. Is this a recipe for failure? At 2:42.00 p.m. the DJIA is up 899 points. Now the action at 2:47:00 p.m. Now this. In at 2:31 p.m. if you like at $850.00 and out 38 minutes later at $1,100.00. That's a gain of $250.00 and all you did was skim a small gain off a hot market. Maybe that could be your trade of the day to avoid all of aggrevations of what might happen next. It would be catching the tail end of a 950 point one day rally. That in itself is not a bad strategy. Now a 3:30 p.m. update. Another small gain. Let's see what ...
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Harley-Davidson

First, I am not a big fan of playing options on stocks in the thirty and forty dollar range. It's not like speculating in Boeing or Caterpillar Calls and Puts with these stocks swinging up or down two or three dollars nearly everyday. Harley Davidson is a thirty five dollar stock. Look at how it is trading so poorly on the good earnings news back at the end of April.
Now here is some of this news.
All the good news was wiped out by the forecasting of a bit of a slowdown in the second half of this year. Investors who bought in early this year when the stock was trading over fifteen dollars higher who correctly anticipcated this surge of earnings must now feel so frustrated. Where are their rewards? Now look below and see where the January 37 Calls are trading at. If the stock gets above forty you would be in luck. That would buy you their next two earnings reports. By then management might see their business in a more favourable light. Yet the chart looks ugly and there doesn't seem to be a support level.* With most option positions "time value" works against you. When you purchase eight months of time and your reasonings for buying in turn out to be correct the time value can become your friend. It is however still a scary position to be considering.

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