What To Focus On - Part Two

My blog of November 27th was entitled "What to Focus On". Please read it. This week we are feeling a bit of a hangover. Last's weeks triple witching event is over. Stocks that were forced to contract in price to sqeeze out spectatate positions on them are now free to resume there old trading patterns. This Monday morning at 10:20 a.m. the Djia is up 301 points. There are also losers. So now what? Mark on your calendar exactly three months down the road how the markets traded on the first morning after one of these triple witching events and use this same logic to catch the upside on the next "hangeover" day like this. How do you pick the winners? Find a few stocks that have enjoyed a recent upswing and play them to pop on the first trading session after one of these events. This blog is just an observation.

Ford Earnings - This Game Repeats Itself Four Times A Year

They should be up right? Supply issues are getting better and their electric trucks are coming. Ford released their earning report yesterday after the close and they were good.
A 20% increase is a decent increase. The stock should rally on that news, right? But wait. Remember in a blog a few days ago how Caterpillar tanked on the morning after a great earnings release? To refresh your memory here is what that chart looked like.
. The Ford stock trades in an interesting price range. Price swings of fifty cents on a twelve dollar stock can send option prices into a tisy. So here is what happened. Remember earnings came out after the closing bell yesterday on May 2nd.
The stock surged Monday morning up to $12.25 and that was the time to be selling out of the Calls bought on the previous Friday. Now let me digress for a moment. G.M. had an earnings release on April 25th and their profit were up substantially. This helps support the thesis that the automobile industry is on a month to month rebound. Buying Ford Calls last Friday would have being a smart calcuated risk. Look at the chart once again. Do you notice a surge in the last few minutes of trade of share buying in Ford at the close yesterday just before the earnings came out? New players were coming to the party hoping for a positive reaction to the release of this news. Here is how they made out. The stock did pop on the opening. Here is how the stock traded in the first twenty minutes of trading. Profits in the Calls happened.
One closing note. Look at this chart on Ford a few weeks back.
Playing options on Ford isn't always a walk in the park.


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