Featured

A "Love-Hate" Relationship With Pfizer Options

Pfizer options often disappoint however there are times when they can be your best friend. Let me try and explain. First look at it's five day chart. The 24.50 series of Calls have more than doubled in price in two days. Volatile stocks like this in this price range attract an inordinate amount of attention when it comes to option trading and it only flares up during these brief periods when the stock has these extreme price moves. Look at the open interest in this one series of Calls below. It's quite substantial. Now for a simple calculation. If the stock moves up today to $25.00 these $.37 cent options on the 24.50 series of options will probably move up to the $.55 cent range. Buy and sell let's say a block of 25 contracts and you will be rewarded with a nice gain. Now let we share this one observation. Here is a look at how the D.J.I.A. traded yesterday. It was down. Who wants to be holding short term Call options overnight if the markets are souring? Wouldn't t...
Post a Comment

Ford Earnings - This Game Repeats Itself Four Times A Year

They should be up right? Supply issues are getting better and their electric trucks are coming. Ford released their earning report yesterday after the close and they were good.
A 20% increase is a decent increase. The stock should rally on that news, right? But wait. Remember in a blog a few days ago how Caterpillar tanked on the morning after a great earnings release? To refresh your memory here is what that chart looked like.
. The Ford stock trades in an interesting price range. Price swings of fifty cents on a twelve dollar stock can send option prices into a tisy. So here is what happened. Remember earnings came out after the closing bell yesterday on May 2nd.
The stock surged Monday morning up to $12.25 and that was the time to be selling out of the Calls bought on the previous Friday. Now let me digress for a moment. G.M. had an earnings release on April 25th and their profit were up substantially. This helps support the thesis that the automobile industry is on a month to month rebound. Buying Ford Calls last Friday would have being a smart calcuated risk. Look at the chart once again. Do you notice a surge in the last few minutes of trade of share buying in Ford at the close yesterday just before the earnings came out? New players were coming to the party hoping for a positive reaction to the release of this news. Here is how they made out. The stock did pop on the opening. Here is how the stock traded in the first twenty minutes of trading. Profits in the Calls happened.
One closing note. Look at this chart on Ford a few weeks back.
Playing options on Ford isn't always a walk in the park.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more

News on Polestar , Lucid (Trading After A Reverse Stock Split) Plus Ford News And Vinfast

Image
Look at the one year chart on Polester. Now it's one month chart. What's going on? It's confusing. It was down $.36 cents on the week. If you want you can spend $.20 or $.25 on Puts and hope that the company goes under in the next five or six months. They recently raised more money by releasing more shares so it's running out of options. You can't run at a loss forever and this news will most likely scare off potential new car buyers. This actually is a low number of outstanding Put options. The consensus seems to be that it is not game over yet. Lucid started trading this week on a "one-for-ten" reverse stock split. Here is its one week chart. It was down $1.39 on the week. It's also going to struggle. Both of these stocks have challenges ahead. On a more positive note here is a chart that looks kind of perky. Ford on the week. The stock was down $.03 cents on the week and it was the 3th highest in share volume trading on the NYSE. It appears...
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more