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Super Micro Trying To Play The Downside After A Strong Earnings Report.

When a stock jumps bigtime on the opening can you play it on the downside? Now two series of its Puts that expire in two days. Now this. The Puts are starting to go up. What do you do next? Cash out with a slight gain? Here is it's five day chart. Can you see how trading short term options have periods of time leave you riveted to your seat. Now another update. .. Might this be a good time to get out and take your money back? Probably. The longer a stock like this goes sideways the less value the Puts will have. To be continued. Getting out was the thing to do. Here is how Super Micro closed on the day. This next chart now has to be added to this story. It's Thursday morning. The stock keeps going up. What are it's Puts doing? Is it worth thinking about taking a position on the downside? They only cost $1.00. Is that reckess thinking? Are late Thursday morning markets the time to be fighting a strong stock? Have you ever thought about Thursday morning Puts being...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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