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Deere Jumped. A Once In A Year Jump. Boy Did It Jump.

If it jumped this much can you purchase a Put $8.69 "out-of-the-money" at 10:09 a.m. shown below that expires tomorrow in the hopes that some of the froth comes out of this stock? How do you jump in to play the downside with any confidence? Is a reversal imminent? It becomes a question of waiting it out to see when it tops out. There are other stocks we can look at for guidance in what to expect. The entire trading community has their eyes on this situation. When G.M. had an earnings report release back about three weeks ago the stock jumped something like four or five dollars and then hung in at that higher level for an extended period of time. Here is a chart showing that situation. Once Deere stops going up is it going to linger sideways for a while? Probably not. It's not like the company suddenly discovered gold. They make tractors. It's kind of a boring business. Let's find out. It's now noon. Suprisingly Caterpillar is not jumping up in sympathy. W...
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The Power Of "One-Month-Out-Options" For Short Term Gains.

It helps when the markets rally on a Monday but that's a secondary issue.
This blog is about stocks in the seventy dollar price range with options on them staggered in thirty day intervals. Is trading in options which trade in only in thirty day intervals better than options on stocks in the same price range that expire every Friday? My experience is that options on stocks that trade every thirty days tend to attract less interest which in turn means that they are less susceptible to "market-maker" manipulations. Yet this isn't really a point I want to debate. Now this, a look at the seventy series of Calls on "Carmax" at the end of the trading session today.
Bid 5:70 ask 5:90. Only two options traded on the day. Let's now look at it's five day chart.
So it jumped a touch but nothing to crazy. Now this, I did a blog last Friday, my previous blog where I showed what the same options were trading at on that day. Here is the printout I want to show.
A 10:39 a.m. readout on Friday morning showing only three option contracts traded with a last trading price traded of $4.07. Is there a lesson here to be gained? Yes, thinly traded "one-month-out" options can be successfully traded. What appreciations are there to be gained? Well there is less market maker manipulations. When you put in a closing sell ticket for only one, two or three contract and if the trend of the stock is upwards you will get a fill without going through the game of watching option makers wiggle the "bid-and-ask" in their favour. One month out options, played correctly are also less stressful to hold because the premiums built into an options price for it's time value will not disappear as quickly as the premiums built into one week out options. That's just the way I see it.

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