Featured

Tesla and Deere Going into a Thursday Morning.

Are you able to remember my blog last Friday talking about Tesla dropping $19.00 in one day and it's Puts jumping up a zillion dolllars? Here are the closing numbers on Tesla and Deere today, Wednesday September 11th. They are difficult to read but Tesla closed at $228.13 and Deere at $388.59 Now look at the sightly "out-of-the-money" Calls on both of these two stocks which expire at the end of the week. Now the Deere Calls. .................. Now look at their one day charts. Remember I have repeatedly said that Wednesdays ( in the context of trading one week options) are the best days of the week for turnarounds situations. Look at the one day charts and look at the gains on the day that both of these option series had. They both took off on the upside after a morning dip. I will continue to track the movement of these two series of Calls over the next two days but the context of this blog is a blog in itself. Wednesday once again can be turn around days. Happy tr
Post a Comment

Caterpillar - It's First Quarter Earnings Report

Boeing rallied yesterday on the release of it's earnings report only then to tank. Caterpillar is tanking this morning in the premarkets. Let's begin with it's 5 day and 30 day chart.
...
The world needs to be rebuilt and Caterpillar is there to help. It's growing, it's got a good reputation, it's not laying off employees and it's doing just fine. If it misses a beat on it's earnings report so what? Life goes on. Then there are those pesky analyst who are known to offer a convoluted spin on things. If you like Caterpillar just buy it on the dips and put it away. So the markets will be opening on the commentary by the companies C.E.O of "sales about flat". Phrasing it that way is a recipe for short term disaster.
.....
The two printouts above show some of the early morning action in one Put series and in One Call series. What happened the next day? A slight rebound with next to no traders trying to capitalize on a rebound. What does this tell us? It tells us option traders in general stay away from trading the "release of earning reports" on Caterpillar.
Now the one week out Call options.
Low open interest, a low volume of trading and relatively big pricings considering the these are only slightly "in-the-money" Calls which might take a few seeks to gain value. The bottom line is that this stock really got beat up and going forward it's going to be again upward journey. It helps that they are buying back their own shares. ** Now a look at how Caterpillar traded at the close on Monday April 29th.
#####
The volume of Calls traded is very light. That's suprising.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas
Read more

The Crazy Last Day of Option Trading In Tesla.

Image
First, look at it's five day chart. Big jumps everyday. If you try and jump in and play the downside everyday you will quickly get beat up. Here for example is one look at the Tesla 235 Puts on Wednesday at 9:34 a.m., only then to check out the same Puts a few minutes later at 10:15 a.m. How do you know what to do? Well you don't fight stocks running up over $8.00 in the first thirteen minutes of trading. Now here is how these Puts were trading at 12:59 p.m. The game is to sell the Puts when the stock is rising and then cover them to be out of the markets at a profit by the end of the day. It's not the small fish playing this game. Now today is Thursday July 4th and the markets are closed. Tomorrow is Friday July 5th.These Put options will be expiring at tomorrow at 3:00 p.m. If Telsa opens down two or three dollars on the opening there is the potential for a small reaction. They will still however be extremely "out-of-the-money". They might jump a touch i
Read more

I Wonder How The Back Office Is Going To Handle My Complaint

Image
The blog is about dealing with the back office of the brokerage company I trade with. This story happened today. Todays trading session has closed and I just made a telephone call to them just after the market closed to voice a complaint over how I feel I got short changed. Here are my background notes. 1) It involves trading the 370 Boeing Puts that expire at the end of this week. I bought in at 10:08:34 a.m. and sold out at 2:59:38 p.m. I was stuck in this position longer than I had hoped. I got lucky and did O.K., however that is not the point. 2) Here are my two "in-and-out" tickets. Two contracts in at 10:08 a.m. at $163.00 each and two contracts out then "at-market" for $365.00 each at 2:59.38 p.m. Now here is Boeing's one day chart. It dropped precipitously from 2:59:00 p.m.to 3:00:p.m. I just happened to be watching it at the exact time of the crash. That's when news came out that the "FAA opens Now a Boeing Inquiry over 787 inspections"
Read more