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Why The Appeal Of Trading Caterpillar Options Is Now Diminishing

In previous blogs I looked at Caterpillar spiking upwards through the $1,000.00 barrier for the very first time. Twenty and thirty and forty dollar daily jumps on the stock were the norm. Today we are entering more sobering times. Pundits are now commenting on the upcoming release on August 4th of Caterpillar's quarterly earning report. That is not far away. The stock has doubled in price in a relatively short period of time. Is the party over? Look at Caterpillars one year chart. The companies earnings have not doubled in the last year. Far from it. So now what? Buy a Put option thirty days out in the hopes the stock might drop ten percent on a more normalized earning's report? Maybe. Here is an example of the cost of what one of these Puts would look like. Given it's current bid and ask the stock would have to drop to the $1,005.00 just to break even. It could, however most active option day traders are seeking opportunities which can play out in hours or in a day. Case...
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Walmart Starting With 2:25 p.m. On A Monday. It's Christmas Week.

First the one day chart.
The markets on the day are down.
Now it's Puts at 2:25 p.m.
Now it's closing price.
Now Tuesday morning.
In some ways we are wasting our time watching what seems to sideways motion. Is this what successful option trading is all about? It's not like watching Tesla or Caterpillar coming out with earning reports, or watching Boeing jump up in price over the last few weeks. There really isn't any reason to be in this position, other than the indexes are down for the second day in a row. With the clock ticking away at you is this a good time to be risking your capital? Not really. It is a struggle.
Now let's look at Walmart at the end of the day on Tuesday. The stock went down in value on the day as did the Puts. Yes the time value is going down which is partially to blame and the indexes also had a drop. These are quiet markets during this holiday period with fewer news report expected to be coming out.
Let's see what happens. Low priced "in-the-money" options with two day to go until expiring in this price range can suprise. At $.62 cents ($62.00) per contract these Puts could be a bargain. Here they are in aftermarket trading. Aftermarket trading this far away from the opening bell doesn't mean to much.
To be continued. Now Wednesday morning.
Now this. The market tanked near the end of the day.
$.65 to $.75 Not much of a gain. Christmas week is not the week for playing options. These options still have one days trading life in them. Trying to outsmart this stock at this juncture is not the way to go. Now one more thing.
With the low trading volumes all week hanging around for another day with no exit plan in case the stock goes the wrong way is not the space to be in. The end.

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