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What's Next For Caterpillar And Deere

Let's start with Caterpillars five day chart. You can see how it zoomed upwards this week as a result of it's quarterly earnings report. If you want to play the downside next's weeks options are going to cost you something like $1,000.00 per contract. Here are how one series of Puts, the 575 Puts closed the day on Friday. So the stock has to drop like $12.00 in five trading sessions just to break even. What a daunting challenge trying to figure out these ones. Many option players accustom to playing the ups and downs of Caterpillar when it was trading at price levels like $325.00 only six months ago now feel totally out of the game. It's now not a game for the little guys. I get it. Now this, a look at how Caterpillar traded on the day last Friday. Between 10:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. the stock dropped $15.00 dollars. The one day options that were expiring that day had an amazing price swing. So a new trend I see happening is a shift away from playing one and two week o...
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Boing Going Into A Friday

Let's start with the late Thursday afternoon activity.
This chart shows the daily trading activity up until 3:42 p.m.. The one bump upwards today augurs well for tomorrow's potential move. Yet then again that is just a random thought.
Now let's look at how they closed the day on Thursday and how much more trading happened in them between 3:42 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. 171 more contracts were added just prior to the closing bell.
Let's watch the action on the opening. Here is Boeing's now current five day chart as of the close of Thursday.
* Boeing jumps overnight..
Here, shown below around 9:00 a.m. is how the stock was trading in the morning premarkets. It was up about $1.50. What does that make these options worth in the premarket? $2.10 plus $1.50 or $360.00? The answer as you will soon see in not quite. In premarket trading there is always some slippage which should be factored in.
Now let's skip ahead to the Friday 3:00 p.m.the deadine when retail option traders must liquidate their "last-day" expiring options. These number might suprise you.
Boeing disappoints. Now this, a Friday afternoon summary at 3:00 p.m. of how the 215 Calls where trading at, plus it's then current one day chart. The high on the day for these 215 Calls happened in the first few minutes of market trading.The high was $3.15.
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Was this blog a waste of time to read? Not really, consider these points. 1) Look at the low on the 215 Calls on Thursday. They traded interday as low as $1.26. Call option players had the opportunity to make money trading them also on that day. 2) If you see a stock trading $1.50 higher in premarket trading you should realize you can get out of them, even "at-market" and walk away with a win. 3) Use this example of this $1.50 price gap at 9:00 a.m. to gauge what price you should submit with a premarket sell ticket if you decide to sell. As one gets closer to the market's opening these upward premarket gaps often get whittled down. 4) As mentioned in previous blogs you will sometimes see stocks trading like $4.00 dollars more in the premarkets, only then see them trading relatively flat on the opening. Keep your eyes on the Call options on these stocks to see if start to rebound back up again in the event of any strenght coming into the markets. One final thought. Some option traders get annoyed to sell out in the premarkets at a modest profit, only then to watch the stock they just sold their Calls out of rally ten or fifteen dollars on the day. You can't have you cake and eat it. *Now this, the 215 series of Puts on the day. The chart below in red better explains this action.
Buying Puts just after the early strength on the opening and getting out with a profit about an hour later was a different way to play this same situation.

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