Featured

Caterpillar - Catching A Reversal On A Tuesday

Tuesdays are not the best of days to look for reversals however Caterpillar jumped a modest amount which impacted the value of this series of Puts. This is a 1:36 p.m. readout. Here is it's five day chart. Now its one day chart. It would seem like kind of a random thing to do and why fight a strong stock? One reason is that the markets are only mildly up and could give back some of it's gains before the end of the day. Caterpillar could be gaining strenght based on last weeks articles talking about how Caterpillar could potential gain from this new AI movement. Notice that the five day chart is in an uptrend and notice the small open interest numbers in the Puts. No one wants to hold Puts on Caterpillar when it is in this uptrend. Could it has a soft selloff in the next two hours? Here it is now 50 minutes later. The "bid and ask" are almost unchanged. There is also not much change in the DJIA index.Now this. The DJIA is sellig off and Caterpillar is hanging ...
Post a Comment

When The Markets Are Up over 550 Points at Noon On A Monday Morning Is It a Good Time To Be Buying Call Options That Expire On Friday?

Did you miss the boat and will there be a retreat on these prices on these Ford Calls in the afternoon or on the next day? Probably. These options are up on no apparent news.
Look at it's five day chart. It's not pretty. All we now hear is bad news about the current state of the auto industry. Now it's five day chart.
What do I know about Ford that other that other people do not know? Nothing really. Let's see what happens with these ones. Next Vinfast, the Vietnamese EV maker with a ten year, 200,000 kilometer warranty. It's stock only started trading on the North American market last year.
It's a stock in the $3.50 range and options on $3.50 stocks are next to impossible to play. Having said that, Call options on another electric car building company called Nio popped last week on better than expected production numbers.That company has a large North American following and a six year history of trading on the NYSE. exchange. China is going all in on electric vehicles and there is a buzz about this in the air.
Now the one week Call options.>
Note the low volumes traded and the large spread between the bid and ask. With this kind of situation it would be better to go like two or three months out. Now here is the thing. If we go two months out nobody is playing them and the bid and ask is to far apart. So forget that suggestion.
Now look at this, the January Calls. Look, there is an outstanding open interest in these Calls and you can look and see what the last Call options traded for. A downward day like this would be a good time to make an entry position. (On up days you would have to pay near the ask to get in).
What do I know about Vinfast? I know that when the stock got listed on the American exchange it was crazy expensive. Here is it's chart. These types of charts don't usually end up well.
Now back to playing Ford Calls once again. With Ford Calls one series of Calls always seems to have a wide following. These are the ones that expire in January of next year and for that matter the year after that. Here is what these two series now look like.
What are we looking at? The $1.03 and $1.69 price numbers. If Ford goes up to over $11.00 in the next four months you will do very well on this investment. Sounds simple right? Well not so fast. Read my July 29th blog on this very same situation and notice how many investors bought into the eleven dollar series of Call options. They got buying in when Ford was trading at a higher price. Here is Ford's "year-to-date chart"
. Tuesday and bad news.
Playing Ford Calls can be a full time job. The liquidity is always there to make this exercise feasible.

Comments

Post a Comment