Featured

Late To The Party Option Players - Disney

Can late to the party option traders make money? It's something to consider? These Call options expire this Friday. There was news on it before the opening today. The second chart below a few minutes later shows it hanging tough. At 10:01 a.m. we now checking out the Puts. The bid and ask on the Puts are very tight. That also makes us ask what happened to the Disney 101 Calls that we first looked at? Here is what the chart now looks like. More Call option players have jumped in to play the upside that the downside. Might one do a spread and try to play it both ways hoping for a breakout either way? That's an option to consider. Disney has being a dog of a stock now for a year so might some profit taking set in? How is Disney going to pay for another theme park? With that on their plates forget any share buy back programs. They are taking on new risks in a period of global uncertainity. Are late to the party option traders best just to stay away from this unexpected situ...
Post a Comment

Can You Play Deere For A Friday Morning Pop? It's Tricky.

Maybe, here is it's five day chart at the close on a Thursday. Yet a five day chart isn't going to help you in figuring out what is going to happen next.
Which way, up or down? Here are the slightly "out-of-the" money Calls as of a Thursday June 6th closing with one day to go in their trading life.
You can see more people like the upside than the downside? That's always the way it seems to be. Now here are some slightly "in-the-money" Puts.
The stock has gone sideways all week. The number of open contracts on these now "one-day" options are very light so that will have no effect on which way this stock will move. Recent history tells us that one day Friday reversals on this stock are a frequent occurance. Wait until it opens and moves in one direction and then get before it moves in opposite diection. Buy "out-of the-money" options and hope for a three dollar swing in the options. That's not much of a strategy and look at how few traders are playing that game. No one really is. Yet recent histories tells us one day reversals off this magnitude are a very common occurance. Is this a reckless trade? Yes very reckless. If however you are coming off a quick win from playing options on something else it might be something you might feel comfortable entertaining. Let's watch now and see how this situation plays itself. It tanked on the opening and quickly pulled itself up.
Here was the opportunity to play a reversal.
This all happened in the first hour of trading. Now here is how it was trading at 1:15 p.m.
Now the final one day chart.
Remember with option trading the rule is on Friday retail traders must be out of their option positons at 3 p.m.. Now the five day chart.
It's funny when you can double your money or make even more on a trading day when the stock really didn't do anything.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Living on Kraft Dinner?

Image
What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Read more

The Little Engine That Could

Image
Walmart again. It's all I seem to blog about. Here is it's five day chart. The stock keeps going up and the option series are set up in one dollar spreads. Even a fifty cent move on the stock moves the needle on these Calls. Look at how this series of Calls was trading yesterday at 3:00 p.m.. Now here is this same series of Calls just before noon today. Thirty days of upward action like this punctuated by the off day of decline. Now notice the higher volume of trading in the series of Calls with the higher striking price. These are the ones's with more leverage. At the same time look at the five day chart on Costco. The two stocks sometimes trade in tandem. Humpty dumpty sat on a wall .... a had a great fall. Someday soon a fall might happen but what a great ride it has been.
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more