Featured

Costco Again. One of The Most Explosive Stocks For Option Trading

 When it comes to option trading Costco options have a couple of things going for it. First, the reliability of it's business model. It's the retailing of the stuff people like to buy. Secondly they have a massive distribution system and it's unlikely that any new competitors will come out of the woodwork and disrupt what they have going. When you buy options on Costco you kind of know your positions you purchase are not going to blow up and obliterate you for reasons you never expected. Also on the plus side for option traders is that the stock moves up or down quickly. On the other hand it's always  difficult to rationalize the exercise of throwing money into playing the downside ( buying Puts) when we know there will be traffic jams in Costco's parking lot this Saturday like any other Saturday. Costco is not going to go away. Here is Costco's five and thirty day charts. First the five day. The five day chart shows it jumping in price on last weeks earning rep...
Post a Comment

"One-Day" Puts That Crazy People Can Play - Netflix

Read the previous blog first, about Exxon on Friday. The Puts on it's last day before they expire options increased in price in the last few hours of trading. So to did the Puts on Nexflix on that same afternoon. Can you see how it sold off six dollars in the morning trading session (the first chart below) only to rebound almost three dollars? Then the stock got tested again and this time it lost it's steam.
Then what happened? Well here are the 470 Puts at 12:08 p.m. which expire at 3:00 p.m. The stock looks like it is trading in a channel downwards. See the chart below.
What next?
Yes the stock continued to drop approaching the 3:00 p.m. deadline/ expiracy time date. Now look at the same series of Puts at 2:12 p.m. They were trading at $490.00.
Looks so easy right? Let's check out it's five day chart and it's year-to-date chart.
Yes on Friday it looked like it wanted to roll over. * Two things. The reality of trading short options like this. Lock yourself in a room and run a bunch of moniters. Lots of cool stuff can happen on a Friday afternoon. If you going to play in this market focus on stocks in this price range. You need a stock that can swing three or four dollars in one day. Lower priced stocks do not. Big swings at this time of the day - like plus or minus $1.00 swings in fifteen minutes often happen. At some point in time take your profits and turn off your computer. There will always be another trading day. ** On the following day Netflix was down after $12.00 mid afternoon. What a drop.
Keep all of this in mind the next time you are thinking of the stock. It can move quickly.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Living on Kraft Dinner?

Image
What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Read more

The Little Engine That Could

Image
Walmart again. It's all I seem to blog about. Here is it's five day chart. The stock keeps going up and the option series are set up in one dollar spreads. Even a fifty cent move on the stock moves the needle on these Calls. Look at how this series of Calls was trading yesterday at 3:00 p.m.. Now here is this same series of Calls just before noon today. Thirty days of upward action like this punctuated by the off day of decline. Now notice the higher volume of trading in the series of Calls with the higher striking price. These are the ones's with more leverage. At the same time look at the five day chart on Costco. The two stocks sometimes trade in tandem. Humpty dumpty sat on a wall .... a had a great fall. Someday soon a fall might happen but what a great ride it has been.
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more