What To Focus On - Part Two

My blog of November 27th was entitled "What to Focus On". Please read it. This week we are feeling a bit of a hangover. Last's weeks triple witching event is over. Stocks that were forced to contract in price to sqeeze out spectatate positions on them are now free to resume there old trading patterns. This Monday morning at 10:20 a.m. the Djia is up 301 points. There are also losers. So now what? Mark on your calendar exactly three months down the road how the markets traded on the first morning after one of these triple witching events and use this same logic to catch the upside on the next "hangeover" day like this. How do you pick the winners? Find a few stocks that have enjoyed a recent upswing and play them to pop on the first trading session after one of these events. This blog is just an observation.

Ford, Lucid and Mullen - A New Common Theme

Ford, Rivian and Mullen. They are all electric vehicle stock however Mullen is one you probably don't know about. All are dangerous to play. Ford had good news on Friday however good news can also be bad news. First however is other good news from back on December 2nd.
Sales down 7.8% is not really good news but it makes it easier to have better numbers going forward. Here is the December 16th news.
On Friday Ford sold off on this news. Ford Call holders got scrubbed out. They blame it Friday trading activity on triple witching. Ford has being transpartent this year reporting a number of issues including the write off of an investment in Rivian. Here is its' year to date stock pattern. There was plenty to cheer about over the year including much needed new product lines. So what if the roof on their Brono doesn't fit right. In the old days they had trucks that would roll over and cars that would explode if they were hit from behind.
When Call option players where buying into the rallies in April, July and October many were picking options series that would expire in January 2023. It was the security of purchasing a Call option with a seemingly endless period of time. Couldn't a stock at $13 in month of May 2023 swing up to $17 before the end of the year? It seemed plausibe. You would now think that we are left with a ceilings of thousands outstanding open interest Call option positions. Last year it wasn't uncommon to see 40 or 50 thousand open contracts in many series of Ford Call contracts at any particular time. Guess what? Most of them have being sold out at serious losses. Look at how low the open interest numbers are in these two series of Call options. That makes them easy to pop on any god news. Here for example are the January 2023 Ford 12.5 Call options
Here also are the Ford 11.5 Calls for January 23th 2023. I get it as traders are now gone to the beach.
What's the current Rivian story all about? It's one of the most exciting cars ever built and it really doesn't matter how much they are priced at.
Analysts expected 20,000 units to be shipped by the luxury EV start-up Lucid Group (LCID) in 2022. Lucid's inital guidance, given in February, fell short of these expectations, coming in at about 13,000 units. Lucid cut guidance in August to six or seven thousand units. Yet to keep things in perspective once again Ford built over 146,000 units last month and that was a slow month. Now Mullen. Do your own homework. Here are two charts of how it traded on the week.
Chart two.
Now here is it's news.
Do your own research on this one. ** Ford was the most activity traded NYSE stock on the week, down $1.06.


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