Featured

Options On Stocks In The Fifteen And Twenty Dollar Price Range With Seven Days To Go And Not Five Days To Go.

I should have called this blog "Ford Calls" or "Harley Davidson Calls" to get more hits but this time I want to show you something a little bit different. What I want to show you is how options with seven days of trading life left in them can suprise. Seven days and not five days. What's the big difference? Well the extra day buys you the action of a Friday bounce without having to worry about your option position expiring that day. Seven and not six days also. These options would need to be bought on a Thursday before the close. This may sound kind of confusing but let me show you two examples of what played itself out last Friday. Let's first use the stock Harley Davidson and use it's Call options as an example. Here is how "seven-day-out-Call-options" would have traded the day later on Friday February 12th. They jumped 60% in one day! What kind of a jump in the stock's price would have caused that to happen? Well let's look at it...
Post a Comment

Roku And It's 2nd Quarter Earning Report

Let's start with the time period of Thursday morning with an earning's report coming out after the closing bell. Look at how crazy expensive these three series of Call options are. They are the Roku "out-of-the-money" Call options that expire tomorrow. The volume in them is not all that crazy but if I owned the stock I would be tempted to sell the Calls against my position and hope they would expire worthless. Tomorrow is Friday August 2nd.
......
.......
Why pay so much? Why pay $4.05 for a Call with a striking price of "58" with one trading day to go in the contract? The stock would have to jump four dollars just to get your money back? Talk about stupid? Yet then again Netflix, a company also in a similiar space sometimes moves like ten dollars in one day. Here now is a look at what happened by showing tomorrow's five day chart.
Down $2.19 on the day to $53.14 with the DJIA down over 600 points.
Say goodbye to those Calls if you ever bought in. Now let's look at it's year-to-date chart.
Can you see how it dropped about $35.00 quickly on the release of it's first quarter's earnings? That's part of the reason why these Calls were so expensive. On good news it could have really popped. So what were it's second quarter earnings actually like?
It's still reporting losing money per share however their guidance is starting to look more promising. Having the markets drop over 600 points on the day (it was down even more than at one point during the day) really squashed any upside potential. The game never ends. Here now is how next weeks 53, 54 and 55 series of Calls are trading.
Pick you battle. How did things turn out four days later in a crummy market? Not good. Look at these same options. People however are now waking up to the fact that the quarterly earnings report was not all that bad. Trading options is never a walk in the park. There is still time for these Calls to suprise.
...
...

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more

Another Blog On "Vinfast"

Image
There is so much to read about this companies history online. Do your own homework. Their success is not dependent on what ends up happening with their sales in North America. They are nimble. There are plenty of auto factories all over the world now for sale they can acquire. They have dabbled in Australia. Having access to money to keep going doesn't seem to be their problem. Rivian also seems to enjoy this advantage. Vinfast is currently building a new plant in India which could employ thousands of people. That's an emerging new market. New relationships are being built and new investors will be coming onboard. Are option players looking at this stock? Not really if we look at these "one-month-out" Calls. What about Calls further out? What about next January? Here is a look at the three and four series of Calls. Nobody seems willing to bet Vinfast Calls. Now this. Here are two snippets taken from a blog I wrote about this stock back in early December of 2024. ...
Read more