Featured

Snowflake Part Two : Thursday Overnight Position Going Into The Final Day Of An Options Life Are Not My Cup Of Tea Unless It Is Perhaps Tesla

The 172.50 series of options on this stock will expire tomorrrow. Today is a Thursday. The first printout shows a bit of a struggle on the opening in the first nine minutes of trading and a return to price it closed at in the previous session. (It did have a nice rally on the previous day then to only give it up). Could it rally again this morning? Now the second printout below the following paragraph shows the high volume of trading pouring into this series of Calls just after the opening. These high volumes of trading shown below happened in the five minutes and twenty one seconds of the trading session. Traders bought in on a slight dip looking for a reversal. Good for them. Are these traders hoping to be out at a profit in the next fifteen or thirty minutes? Yes. Get in and get out. Catch a profit as the stock is deciding which way it will go. It's early in the morning trading session and the volume of trading is always the highest in the first and in the last hour of trading....
Post a Comment

Fresh Eyes on Deere

Let's start at noon on Monday August 26th. In previous blogs I have mentioned how low the volume of option playing is on this stock. Why is that? Well one of the reasons is that the company is light on new releases and anyone trying to analyze the company should do so with a longer term prospective. It's not like tracking Boeing which seems to have a thousand moving parts and near daily stories of what just happened the day before. That's why I have sometimes said Deere makes directional thirty day moves and it is easier capital on options that are one month out, rather than one week out. That said, here is it's thirty day chart. August 10th was the time to be getting in on it's Calls. It's path forward now is less clear.
That said, let's now start this blog with its five day chart.
It's flat on the day after being higher on the opening.
........
One thought. It could rebound a couple of dollars before the end of the day. Here now is how it closed out the day. The volume of trading on these Calls was next to nothing.
Now this on a Tuesday.
Can you see how suddenly this position lost so much of it's value and might end up expiring worthless on Friday. Three or four or five dollar price swings on this stock happen all the time over two day periods of time. If you get caught going the wrong way can you see how discouraging these options are to play? It's not like playing Tesla options which can swing up or down seven dollars in one day whispering of the silliest of news. That said, Deere options sometimes do suprise. I doubt few other bloggers on the web focus on situations like this. Now the same calls on Wendesday's closing. Down but not out.
Thursday August 29th at the close. Down and not out again. A few lucky traders may have got out at a profit.
Do you think this chart will bounce on the opening? It seems to have a lot of froth and six hours of trading life left in them. Let's see what happens. Here is the Thursday at the close five day chart.
Now to Friday morning, the culmination of a long week of nursing this series of Call options. If you have any of these Calls you would be wise to get out at this point? There are after all easier battles to play. Yet ten again some traders like Fridays action.
Here is how it closed out the week.
Friday turned out to be a week of upward action. Fianally, here is Deere's thirty day chart.
Now it's ninety day chart. It look s like it wants to break out.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more

Trump Media Technology Options With Three Days To Go.

Image
On Tuesday just after 3:00 p.m the Trump Media Technology Options had stop traded again. What is the next 24 hours going to bring? Who knows. So many option traders follow this stock and most are afraid to buy either Call or Put Options on it because their premiums are so expensive. If Trumph wins the stock should soar and if he loses the stock will tank. The option premiums are priced expensively in both directions. Here now is how both the Calls and Puts traded on the opening today. First the Calls six minutes into the opening. Now the Puts. Now a look at how these options played the day. With a "stop trading" situation the option session ended a little bit early as evidenced in these following readings. Notice also how low the open interest number is in these Puts. Option traders for the most part opted to stay away from this situation. Now this. Trump wins. Here is how the 38 series of Calls traded just after the opening at 10:11 a.m.. The stock is up however the...
Read more

Another Earnings Report - "Roku" - Thursdays and Friday Trading.

Image
Please read this Roku "earnings report" blog. Roku was down fifteen dollars in the first hour of trading today after the release of it's third quarter earnings report. Here is a 10:52 a.m. look at one series of Puts that doubled in price on the opening as a result of this sell off. In my last blog on Caterpillar I talked about points of inflection where stocks rebound after bad news. This time an inflection point may not be in the cards. Caterpillars earning were just shy of expections but nothing had really changed. The world still needs their products and they are still a dominant player in their industry. Roku is a different animal. Their subscribers are a fickle bunch. Companies like Roku and Netflix go up and down all the time. Roku now is just back to a level at which it was trading at earlier this year. I don't know how to interpret their financial statements. Things still look pretty good for them to me. Once again here is a look at the increase in the value...
Read more