Featured

Netflix And It's Ten For One Reverse Stock Split

No longer is Netflix a $1,000 stock. Now the common man can buy it. That's the new logic. Today Netflix is now trading after a "ten-for-one-reverse-stock-split". Netflix was up $8.51 last week when it was trading at it's old level of over $1,000 per share. Perhaps the street was buying in last week on the hopes that a new wave of buyers will be buying in at this weeks newly adjusted price. Now this, it's five day chart. Now this weeks Call and Put options an hour or so into the opening markets.. Whatever happens it's not going to be a comfortable ride. Maybe it could go both ways. Now it's end of day readings. ..... ..... Here is how the markets closed the day. The now current question is which way will this stock trade on an upward day? One unusual factor is that the open interest in the Puts far outweighs the open interest in the Calls. To me that's counter intuitive. To me that looks like trap for all the Put holders. Usually there are more Cal...
Post a Comment

Shifting Views on the Relevancy Of Option Trading.

An article entitled "This Option Craze Could Spell Market Trouble" by a fellow named Steven Sears in Barron's this month is of extreme interest to me. He starts with the sentence "The options market is in the throes of a speculative mania." He claims that the industry now characterizes options that expire in one week as being financial fentanyl. One of this sentences says - "The truncated expirations seem to mostly incite aggressive speculation as they reduce put and call prices into Wall Street's version of cheap scratch-off lottery tickets." Is he adverse to these types of trades? Well he side tracks this question by saying "The curent option trading mania is dominated by hot teck stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Apple, Micosoft. Super Micro Computer, and Amazon.com. Many of these stocks are so expensive that only weathy investors can afford to buy 100 shares - and even they might pause at paying top dollar for such steeply valued names." In other words he admits that short term option trading is not going to go away. In order to add more favor to his articles he references comments made by a fellow named John Marshall with Goldman's. It is Mr. Marshalls opinions he says that "the option markets provides rich details about investor expectations for coming catalysts, such as earnings or investor days". I am not sure what he means by investor days. He then negates the seriousness of such a conversation by adding this sentence. "Many experienced investors think trading options ahead of earnings is the equvalent of a coin toss." Now look at the movements in the following three stocks last five trading sessions. First Boeing.
The last spike up was yesterday a Monday morning. I you are a long time reader of these blogs you will know how I have talked about holding Boeing Calls over the weekend and gettng out if it jumps on Monday morning. Let's also look at a one day trading opportunity that became self evident the week before .
Now lets mention some of the selling pressure it was under back during the time period of March 12th.
Options are a way to capitalize on rationalizing the effects of short term events. Now Caterpillar in the last five trading sessions. What an remarkable move.
I have recently talked about how light the trading volumes are in option series on stock like this. Contrary to conventional wisdom, following the pack in how options seem to be trading is not a recipe for success. Lastly lets look at Disney in the last five days.
In the past two weeks I have written several blogs about how Disney is in an uptrend. My point is that to capitalize on short term stock moves is not a farfetched as many people think. Forget what the so called experts say.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more

Another Blog On "Vinfast"

Image
There is so much to read about this companies history online. Do your own homework. Their success is not dependent on what ends up happening with their sales in North America. They are nimble. There are plenty of auto factories all over the world now for sale they can acquire. They have dabbled in Australia. Having access to money to keep going doesn't seem to be their problem. Rivian also seems to enjoy this advantage. Vinfast is currently building a new plant in India which could employ thousands of people. That's an emerging new market. New relationships are being built and new investors will be coming onboard. Are option players looking at this stock? Not really if we look at these "one-month-out" Calls. What about Calls further out? What about next January? Here is a look at the three and four series of Calls. Nobody seems willing to bet Vinfast Calls. Now this. Here are two snippets taken from a blog I wrote about this stock back in early December of 2024. ...
Read more

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more