What To Focus On - Part Two

My blog of November 27th was entitled "What to Focus On". Please read it. This week we are feeling a bit of a hangover. Last's weeks triple witching event is over. Stocks that were forced to contract in price to sqeeze out spectatate positions on them are now free to resume there old trading patterns. This Monday morning at 10:20 a.m. the Djia is up 301 points. There are also losers. So now what? Mark on your calendar exactly three months down the road how the markets traded on the first morning after one of these triple witching events and use this same logic to catch the upside on the next "hangeover" day like this. How do you pick the winners? Find a few stocks that have enjoyed a recent upswing and play them to pop on the first trading session after one of these events. This blog is just an observation.

A 2024 Post. So An Analyst Jump Started The Year.

It's the first trading session of the year and the x-mas chatter is that the world is still in a mess, consumers are overextended, rents might be softening and EV sales are hitting a rough patch. So what's the analyst jump start I am talking about?
This isn't the first time it has jumped in a while. Look at this one day jump in mid December a few years ago.
The stock also did jump from $15.92 on Sept 1st 2019 to $384.86 on Sept 1st 2021. Now look at the price of the 115 puts for this friday. The time of this reading was 1:48 p.m. after the morning jump was over.
So this analyst is really reporting nothing new and simple playing the odds of getting recognized for an early year claim, knowing that the media is starving for news. Yet trying to play the downside on news that is not really news is a tough way to start the year. There are better things to be watching. (See my last's weeks blog on Costco falling). Now see how this series of Puts closed out the day.
Let's see what happens next. It dropped again the following morning. It will not drop forever. Time to move on to something different. Now note the open interest as of yesterdays close. Read what it is. The answer is ONE. That is amazing! Just one. Then see below the number 353 which represents the closing open interest. Subtract this number from the number 1011 and that's the number of in and out contracts traded on the day. Day traders, true to their name were in and out, missing the sizeable drop in share price on the following morning. It all makes sense. Dine and dash.
It also makes me wonder how many insiders played the upside with advance knowledge of this upgrade coming. That is something the regulators should be jumping on.


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