Featured

What's Next For Caterpillar And Deere

Let's start with Caterpillars five day chart. You can see how it zoomed upwards this week as a result of it's quarterly earnings report. If you want to play the downside next's weeks options are going to cost you something like $1,000.00 per contract. Here are how one series of Puts, the 575 Puts closed the day on Friday. So the stock has to drop like $12.00 in five trading sessions just to break even. What a daunting challenge trying to figure out these ones. Many option players accustom to playing the ups and downs of Caterpillar when it was trading at price levels like $325.00 only six months ago now feel totally out of the game. It's now not a game for the little guys. I get it. Now this, a look at how Caterpillar traded on the day last Friday. Between 10:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. the stock dropped $15.00 dollars. The one day options that were expiring that day had an amazing price swing. So a new trend I see happening is a shift away from playing one and two week o...
Post a Comment

Another New Electric Vehicle Player To Watch - Vinfast.

Do you remember Polestar going public at $10.00 a share?
Look at how it has struggled. It dropped further this week on a disappointing quarterly earnings report. Maybe next week it will bounce back again. It's still in business and advanced new models are soon on the horizon. It could be like the Nio report last week. Nio bounced back after reporting a quarter of lower production numbers.
Other upstart electric vehicle companies like Rivian and Fisker are also struggling to be profitable. Remember I recently mentioned Faraday Future doing a 70 for 1 reverse stock split? How crazy was that? A ten for one reverse split would have got them over the magical $1.00 mimimum trading treshold and kept it as one of the most actively traded stock on the Nasdaq. Here is how it traded this week after their announcement. Their stock in now sinking into oblivion.
Then there is a newly listed Vietnamese company called VinFast with vehicles arriving to North America and plans to buld a factory in the United States. What a dumb time to listing a stock in this sector on the NASDAQ. I think the stock is in for a rough ride.
Down from over $80.00 at the start of the week to $29.49. What's to stop it from going to $15.00? Stay away until it builds it's new factory on U.S. grounds and gets it up and running. On a differing note, the big three auto companies in North American now have new companies like this one coming out of nowhere as competition. Competition is a good thing. Consumers are gaining more options. ** An Sep 6th update. The rough ride continues.
A Sept.22nd update.
EV stocks in this price range make me nervous.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more

Another Blog On "Vinfast"

Image
There is so much to read about this companies history online. Do your own homework. Their success is not dependent on what ends up happening with their sales in North America. They are nimble. There are plenty of auto factories all over the world now for sale they can acquire. They have dabbled in Australia. Having access to money to keep going doesn't seem to be their problem. Rivian also seems to enjoy this advantage. Vinfast is currently building a new plant in India which could employ thousands of people. That's an emerging new market. New relationships are being built and new investors will be coming onboard. Are option players looking at this stock? Not really if we look at these "one-month-out" Calls. What about Calls further out? What about next January? Here is a look at the three and four series of Calls. Nobody seems willing to bet Vinfast Calls. Now this. Here are two snippets taken from a blog I wrote about this stock back in early December of 2024. ...
Read more

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more