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How To Avoid Time Value Traps With Last Week Options.

This blog is not going to be an exhausting study of this topic. I just want to show you a few charts found in recent blogs and comment on which ones seem to skirt the issue of "time-value-concerns' and which ones don't. 1) Avoid Thursday at the close Call options. In this case Thursday is the second last day of the above chart. If you guess the wrong direction on the close it's going to be game over on Friday when the options expire. Thursday at the close on options that expire the next day are the biggest time value traps you can buy into. If the stock moves in the wrong direction it's game over. 2) Ford on a Monday going into Tuesday. On this chart April 13th is a Monday and Tuesday is the 14th. Can you see Ford closing strong on the close of the 13th? It would make sense to get in on the stong closing because these Calls would still have four trading days to recover if Tuesdays opening was not all that spectacular. 3) This time it's Caterpillar and it...
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Deere On Earnings and Boeing

Here is a look at Deere towards the end of the afternoon after a premarket earnings report was released. It got beat up pretty bad. What we are now looking at is a printout of one Deere option series which will be expiring the next day. This snapshot was taken at 3:37 p.m.. Would now be a good time to buy into these 395 Calls and try to play tomorrow's potential upside? The stock is rebounding from a significant dip.
Lets look at how these options traded the next day. Can you see they hit a high of $4.65 sometime during the following day?
I did two very small trades on the Friday morning bounce back. I just wanted to cover my commissions and make a touch. Remember, Deere options are extremely difficult to play and with only hours to go before this series of Call options expire its not bad to take a profit whenever one materializes.
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My times in were 10:14 to 10:31 a.m. and 10:59 to 11.09 a.m. I missed the elusive high of $4.65 which happened after I got out. Part Two. Can you make money looking for bounces? Look a Boeing's five day trading chart last week and look at how it bounced on Thursday.
Guess what I picked up on Wednesday? "Out-of-money" Boeing Calls, 10 of the 190's, they were way "out-of-the money" Calls and 4, 185 Calls. I got lucky and got the bounce I needed on Thursday morning to make out alright. I did, however sell out to quickly - it's always difficult to guess the top, especially when holding "out-of-the-money" soon to expire positions.
Part two. Now let's move forward to looking at holding Boeing over the weekend. It sometimes pops on Monday mornings. I got in on Friday at 3:57 p.m. and out on Monday at 10:15 a.m. Getting out is always the tough part, trying to pick the correct exit point. This time I was off a bit. I got nervous on the fist dip and should have waited longer. In at $1.06 and out at $1.56.
Here is how the stock traded on Monday.
It dropped on a weak opening and then had some strong legs. It lost steam towards the end of the day. To be continued.

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