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What To Focus On - Part Two

My blog of November 27th was entitled "What to Focus On". Please read it. This week we are feeling a bit of a hangover. Last's weeks triple witching event is over. Stocks that were forced to contract in price to sqeeze out spectatate positions on them are now free to resume there old trading patterns. This Monday morning at 10:20 a.m. the Djia is up 301 points. There are also losers. So now what? Mark on your calendar exactly three months down the road how the markets traded on the first morning after one of these triple witching events and use this same logic to catch the upside on the next "hangeover" day like this. How do you pick the winners? Find a few stocks that have enjoyed a recent upswing and play them to pop on the first trading session after one of these events. This blog is just an observation.

Caterpillar, John Deere and Boeing. A Shakeout This Week.

Let's start with their one week charts.
A bad week to be playing Call options. Tomorrow Friday is a holiday so this weeks options expired today. Here is how Boeing traded on the day.
A reward for traders who were glued to their screens all week. Look at how at around 1:00 p.m. the 210 Calls and 212.50 "out-of-the-money" Calls popped.
In around 11:30 a.m. at .11 cents and out at 1:30 p.m. at $2.40. The 212.50 Calls were even more extreme. In at 11:30 a.m. for one dollar a contract and out at sixty-five dollars a contract.
Look at the Call volume. If you were glued to watching Boeing at that particular time you could have caught some of this action. In contrast look at this. Look at how the Caterpillar Calls were trading around 2:00 p.m. in the afternoon. Options on the last day of week that are expired have the rule that you must be out at 3:00 p.m. and not 4:00 p.m. Look at this one day chart at that particular time period.
Now look at this.
An open interest of only 37 contracts going into the day when often times that number is like 5,000. Caterpillar got grubbled all week and few traders were willing to play the upside. Here is how these Calls closed out the day and first here is how the D.J.I. closed out the day. Up 2 points.
Here it is. There was a bit of a rally from 2:06 p.m.to 2:30 p.m. and the above Calls would have went up about 75%. Ultimately however they ended up expiring worthless as also shown below.
Boeing was the trade of the day. Boeing has a constant stream on news being pumped out in contrast to Caterpillar and John Deere. It's the best of these three companies to be playing at times like this, hoping for needed good news.

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