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Caterpillar - Catching A Reversal On A Monday

Mondays are not the best of days to look for reversals however Caterpillar jumped upwards a modest amount which impacted the value of this series of Puts. The Puts are off about 50% on the day at this point in time. This is a 1:36 p.m.readout. Here is it's five day chart. Now its one day chart. It's Puts. Why consider them? It would seem like kind of a random thing to do. Why fight a strong stock? One reason is that the markets are only mildly up and could give back some of it's gains before the end of the day. Caterpillar could be gaining strenght based on all of last weeks business articles talking about how Caterpillar could potentially benefit from all this new AI movement. Caterpillar afterall builds heavy equipment which can be used in the construction of nuclear reactors. Notice that the five day chart is in an uptrend and notice the small open interest numbers in the Puts. That's understandable. No one wants to hold Puts on Caterpillar when it is in this...
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Rethinking Setting Up A Deere Position One Week Out

A rough opening this morning.
A news release which I thought wasn't all that bad. Rising sales during a period of covid!
A further morning decline in a market which was holding it's own in the first hour of trading.
What to do? Why not buy a Call with one week to go? Here is what they cost at 10:13 a.m. and here is what the five day chart looks like as of 10:30 a.m.
But wait. The markets sometimes turn south in the afternoon and more importantly the trading volumes on Friday afternoons often dry up. Look at how the markets (the DJI is selling off). Might it drop more on the day? Why is there now a rush to play the upside? There isn't but look at Walmart and Netflix. They both have a similiar story.
We will soon be going into a Friday afternoon, which is not a period of time when the markets tend to rally. My interest in looking for a rebound is now waning. Here is how these Calls closed out the day. The problem now is that this particular series is now to far "out-of-the-money" to consider.
Here is the closing one day chart.
Fridays in general are not good times to be looking for reversals. These markets as of late are wicked. Deere lost $51.31 on the day. (This chart doesn't show the lower gap opening which was a big chunk of the loss on the day). Walmart also lost over $25.00 in one day a few days back. It's a market where everyone has lost money. Clear skies will be slow in coming back.

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