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What To Focus On - Part Two

My blog of November 27th was entitled "What to Focus On". Please read it. This week we are feeling a bit of a hangover. Last's weeks triple witching event is over. Stocks that were forced to contract in price to sqeeze out spectatate positions on them are now free to resume there old trading patterns. This Monday morning at 10:20 a.m. the Djia is up 301 points. There are also losers. So now what? Mark on your calendar exactly three months down the road how the markets traded on the first morning after one of these triple witching events and use this same logic to catch the upside on the next "hangeover" day like this. How do you pick the winners? Find a few stocks that have enjoyed a recent upswing and play them to pop on the first trading session after one of these events. This blog is just an observation.

Hog

Investors sometimes sell out on good earning reports even if the stock price is not doing well. You be the judge on this one.
Live Wire a new stand alone brand, that sounds good. Options on Harley Davidson are thinly traded and options on stocks in the forty dollar range tend to be difficult to play in the short term range. This could be one of those "legging-a-spread" opportunities I have recently talked about. Purchase a couple of near to the money Call options six or eight months out and sell against them a higher higher series Call options if the stock ever gets a two or three dollar lift. Why are current investors being punished? The covid thing and supply chain issues. Perhaps good times will start to move this stock upwards again. This is a tough one to call with analyst thinking's in recent changing constantly. ** In this next paragraph I want to discuss the issue with short term option trading on stocks like this that have poor option liquidity. Let's look at the 40 series of Call options on Harley that expire tomorrow. Look at the low volume of trading and the low number of outstanding open interest option contracts.
Compare this to the thousands of option contracts that we know trade daily on stocks like Boeing or Caterpillar. With thinly traded option positions you tend to have to purchase on the ask side and sell on the bid side. Yet that doesn't matter all that much if your timing perspective is many months away. *** On a differing note the Ford January Calls now look good to me. Dealers don't have many Ford 150 trucks now in stock because of the chip shortage however forward looking thinkers may have reasons to look beyond this.

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