Featured

Tesla Calls On A Friday That Expire On Monday

It's the same topic I posted last Friday. Today is Independence Day and the markets are closed. For this reason we can't really talk about mimicking last last Friday's trading. Here is it's five day chart. As you can see Tesla dropped on Thursday. Here is a look at how one series of Telsa's Puts traded on Thursday. Now look at the pricing on this one series of "slightly-out-of-the-money" Tesla Calls as of Thursday's close. These Calls would let you be in all of Monday's trading action. Is the price of $4.60 a contract a fair price? Well consider these two points. One day swings in stocks in general in the $400.00 price range can be significant. This five day chart of Tesla below shows you how it jumped $32.13 last Monday! The second point is that long weekends (three full days of no market trading) are know to cause market resets. Stocks like Exxon can get whipped around. That's what makes the pricings on all options now so difficult to gau...
Post a Comment

Deere Jumped. A Once In A Year Jump. Boy Did It Jump.

If it jumped this much can you purchase a Put $8.69 "out-of-the-money" at 10:09 a.m. shown below that expires tomorrow in the hopes that some of the froth comes out of this stock? How do you jump in to play the downside with any confidence? Is a reversal imminent? It becomes a question of waiting it out to see when it tops out. There are other stocks we can look at for guidance in what to expect. The entire trading community has their eyes on this situation. When G.M. had an earnings report release back about three weeks ago the stock jumped something like four or five dollars and then hung in at that higher level for an extended period of time. Here is a chart showing that situation.
Once Deere stops going up is it going to linger sideways for a while? Probably not. It's not like the company suddenly discovered gold. They make tractors. It's kind of a boring business.
Let's find out. It's now noon.
Suprisingly Caterpillar is not jumping up in sympathy.
Would that give you a reason to be looking at it's Calls? Here is one series that expire tomorrow about $5.00 "out-of-the-money".
Let's see what happens. Now back to Deere again.
These Puts are now $25.95 dollars "out-of-the-money" with the stock up $77.68. At this point the 670 series of Puts look like a bettter space to be in.
It happened. Deere did roll over towards the end of the day.
Now the same Deere 670 Puts.
The last trade of the day was at $18.38 up from trading at $7.38 at 12:56 p.m.. What about Caterpillar which was kind of a dog all day when all of this action was happening? Back at 12:14 p.m. we saw it's 760 Calls trade at $5.48. They closed the day at $6.80. That's not much of a jump for the risk involved.
What's going to happen tomorrow will also be interesting. Company insiders could have lined their pockets on this one. The system at times is not fair. *** Now a line from my Nov. 30th, 2025 blog. Everyone knows that Deere can trade both ways.
Management has learned to keep it's shareholders in the dark.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more

News on Polestar , Lucid (Trading After A Reverse Stock Split) Plus Ford News And Vinfast

Image
Look at the one year chart on Polester. Now it's one month chart. What's going on? It's confusing. It was down $.36 cents on the week. If you want you can spend $.20 or $.25 on Puts and hope that the company goes under in the next five or six months. They recently raised more money by releasing more shares so it's running out of options. You can't run at a loss forever and this news will most likely scare off potential new car buyers. This actually is a low number of outstanding Put options. The consensus seems to be that it is not game over yet. Lucid started trading this week on a "one-for-ten" reverse stock split. Here is its one week chart. It was down $1.39 on the week. It's also going to struggle. Both of these stocks have challenges ahead. On a more positive note here is a chart that looks kind of perky. Ford on the week. The stock was down $.03 cents on the week and it was the 3th highest in share volume trading on the NYSE. It appears...
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more