Featured

Day Trading One Month Out Options. Learning To Skim The Tiniest Of Moves

This blog is different. It's about skimming small profits on one type of option in particular. It's also my story about how to make the time value of "one-month-out" options your very best friend. What I am about to try to describe to you is a phenomenon of wrongly calculated time values built into option pricings. Wrongly calculated from the perspective that some option prices (their "bids and asks") are over-sensitive to the tiniest of pricing swings. Who am I to make claims like this? What credentials do I bring to the table? I don't want to tell you as I want to keep my identity a secret. Let's just say that I have being trading options for a long time. Over the years I have learned that "nine month" or "one year out" Call options or Put options on stock's in the ten dollar price range are often mispriced. As example, I have followed the stock "Ford" for like forty years and to me it's January Call options a...
Post a Comment

BlackBerry - How Long Will the Wait Be for This Company to Turn a Profit?

I want to begin this blog by saying I am embarrassed to be writing about this company. So many investors know so much more about this company than I do. I am not privy to any inside information. I have just scanned a fifty nine page financial report on the company that you can find on the website "Sedar". I note a recent litigation settlement. The company seems to think thats all part of doing business and I note they sold their company aircraft. There are 577 million shares outstanding and they lose money. Shareholders have not had much to cheer about so far this year. Here is a three year chart and year to date chart.
So far so good? Are you wondering where I am going with all this? First I want to talk about the big bounces it had in each of the last two years. Other stocks too had unusual bounces like this one. I mentioned in a blog last May the bounce on a stock called Sundial once had. Please read this next paragraph. It's the essence of what "meme stocks" are all about. Blackberry unexplainably got sucked into this "meme stock" mentality.
Might BlackBerry ever regain some of it's meme stock followers? That is one question somewhat worthy of consideration which the markets are totally discounting. I get it. Other meme stocks are also beat up. Option players are now happy playing hot things like Caterpillar jumping up five dollars each day. BlackBerry Call options are now totally out of fashion. Now here is the hard part about writing this blog. The part about selling the sizzle as to why I think better times are just around the corner. The big question is, if they are then why isn't anyone recognizing this? Yet then again, why hold Call options on a stock which is in decline? Is BlackBerry really now onto something good? Read this.
Now also read this. If do you any research you will learn that BlackBerry products are now incorporated into the designs of millions of vehicles already on the road.
Is it now time to be considering medium term Call options on BlackBerry? Let me say maybe. Look at the volume on one of their short term Call options series that expire on December 23st 2022. It looks like someone just closed out their postion of seven contracts.
577 million shares outstanding and zero open Call options positions on the Dec 23 $4.50 Calls which now expire in about 45 days. These are the ones close to being "in-the-money" and potentially most likely to bounce on any good news. It's absurd. At some point in time there will have to be glimpses of better times ahead. Remember also that it was recently considered to be a meme stock. Why is it now so out of fashion? Might I suggest that the least you can do to follow this situation is to register online for company updates. P.S. Maybe I should write a blog about the January 2024 Calls. So much could happen in a one year time period.** BlackBerry has entered a phase where it not big on doing news releases and not big on drawing attention to themselves. Disgruntled shareholders are kind of stuck in limbo waiting for better days. * a look at this stock the morning after this blog.
(This is also interesting).

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Living on Kraft Dinner?

Image
What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Read more

The Little Engine That Could

Image
Walmart again. It's all I seem to blog about. Here is it's five day chart. The stock keeps going up and the option series are set up in one dollar spreads. Even a fifty cent move on the stock moves the needle on these Calls. Look at how this series of Calls was trading yesterday at 3:00 p.m.. Now here is this same series of Calls just before noon today. Thirty days of upward action like this punctuated by the off day of decline. Now notice the higher volume of trading in the series of Calls with the higher striking price. These are the ones's with more leverage. At the same time look at the five day chart on Costco. The two stocks sometimes trade in tandem. Humpty dumpty sat on a wall .... a had a great fall. Someday soon a fall might happen but what a great ride it has been.
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more