What To Focus On - Part Two

My blog of November 27th was entitled "What to Focus On". Please read it. This week we are feeling a bit of a hangover. Last's weeks triple witching event is over. Stocks that were forced to contract in price to sqeeze out spectatate positions on them are now free to resume there old trading patterns. This Monday morning at 10:20 a.m. the Djia is up 301 points. There are also losers. So now what? Mark on your calendar exactly three months down the road how the markets traded on the first morning after one of these triple witching events and use this same logic to catch the upside on the next "hangeover" day like this. How do you pick the winners? Find a few stocks that have enjoyed a recent upswing and play them to pop on the first trading session after one of these events. This blog is just an observation.

Exxon Mobile - Numbers On Option Prices Swirling In The Air

Is this a game to hard for the little guys to play in? I don't usually follow options on Exxon but I played them often forty years ago when I was a stockbroker. Back then the spreads on options were in 1/8 th's. Sometimes the back office would skim an 1/8 off the ticket fills especially if the ticket was for like ten contracts. Exxon had a big jump today. People again are talking about the price of oil.
Might it retrace half it's gains?
I note that in the last six minutes of option trading on the day today (Tuesday June 7th) these option prices remained unchanged. That's a bullish signal as day traders were not anxious to cash out. Let's see what happens next. I jumped in and watched the "oil news". Every hour a new article would seem to pop up about why it is surging. Is it surging or spiking? It's a game most people should not being playing. It's dangerous and it's price swings are impossible to predict. I got in on Tuesday and on Wednesday with Friday Puts. I don't want to tell you what I got out at but my perspective is that the exercise requires way too much babysitting. If your running on profits and if you want to see if you can extend your winning streak then go ahead and knock yourself out and try it.
It's not a fun game to play because so much of what might happen is out of your control. Look at how the spike I was initially attracted to turned out to be a nightmare until Thursday. There is a lot of short term action in this five day chart. It's crazy. *** Look at what happened to Exxon the following Monday.
Sometimes it pays to buy options two weeks out and not only days from expiring. ** a June 17th update. Look at this stock drop over five dollars in one day. What a freefall.


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