Featured

G.M. Option Are Now A Trap Few Option Traders Want To Play

G.M. popped yesterday on an earnings report. That puts us in "a now what" trap. Will it go up or down and what about the Calls and Puts on it that expire this week (today is Wednesday) and next week? Look at at this weeks Calls and Puts that expire in three days. ............. As one would expect there are more outstanding Calls than Puts. Now a question. Would you be nervous that G.M. might sell off on the opening? Investors now have had time to digest this news and fret over what might happen to the car industry in America going forward. B.Y.D. is now sending boat loads of vehicles to new ports all over the world. That can't be a good omen. So to catch any action on G.M. the very best time to catch any waivering is in first ten minutes of today's trading. Here is how one series of puts traded on the opening. In my mind this was the easiest trade on the week. It was a case of striking when the iron was hot. Now this. Sometimes irons are slow in cooling off.
Post a Comment

Ford's Largest One Day Share Price of The Year - Or Santa Claus Came Early.

Ok, so yesterday, a Thursday I looked at Ford because management was in the news saying they are going to stop taking more preorders on their upcoming F150 electric truck. They have too many orders. They were also saying look out world - we are going electric. V.W. and Toyota were also making similiar claims. Here is a look at Ford at 12:11 p.m. today.
At noon Ford was up 5.6% and their short term options which expire today were up ten fold. Stocks the size of Ford seldom jump that much in one morning. Why didn't lightbulbs go off in my head yesterday saying lets take a flyer on Ford Call options for tomorrow with one day's trading life left in them? That would be the Dec 10th 20 Calls. As you can see, the 20 Calls this morning went from .06 or six dollars a contract to .61 or sixty one dollars a contract at noon! Then looked at how they ended up the day. A .06 or six dollar contract would be worth one hundred and forty three dollars! A six hundred dollar investment would be worth fourteen thousand and forty three dollars.
Let's pause for a few seconds. I don't make this stuff up. It actually happened today. It was Ford's largest one day share price rise of the year.
Look also at how the Ford 21 Calls traded today. They are the Call options with a striking price one dollar higher. No one really expected the stock to pop another dollar after rallying on the previous day. Boy so many people were wrong. Ford exploded upwards on the opening again like it did on the previous day and shot upwards to the moon. Near the start of the day the Ford 21 series of Calls traded at .01 or one dollar. Then look at what happened! The Call options that started the day at one dollar a contract ended up the day at forty five dollars a contract! A one thousand dollar flyer with the Ford 21 Calls could have made you enough to puchase a decent new car.
Sometimes when I see old men with no hair and glasses driving shiny Mustang convertibles around town I wonder if they paid for them with their profits from playing options on Ford.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more

Another Blog On "Vinfast"

Image
There is so much to read about this companies history online. Do your own homework. Their success is not dependent on what ends up happening with their sales in North America. They are nimble. There are plenty of auto factories all over the world now for sale they can acquire. They have dabbled in Australia. Having access to money to keep going doesn't seem to be their problem. Rivian also seems to enjoy this advantage. Vinfast is currently building a new plant in India which could employ thousands of people. That's an emerging new market. New relationships are being built and new investors will be coming onboard. Are option players looking at this stock? Not really if we look at these "one-month-out" Calls. What about Calls further out? What about next January? Here is a look at the three and four series of Calls. Nobody seems willing to bet Vinfast Calls. Now this. Here are two snippets taken from a blog I wrote about this stock back in early December of 2024. ...
Read more