Featured

A Classic Apple Story ... or ... An Apple Story In Disarray

It's Thursday after the close. 1) This is how Apple closed. What I am showing is it's five day chart. 2) Here are it's Calls and Puts on one series of options that expire tomorrow. We are also showing the 262.50 series of Calls and Puts. ......... 3) Look at the price increase on the Puts today. This was a day when the D.J.I.A dropped 669 points on the day. These Calls now look cheap to me, but who needs to be in a game like this? There is no tommorows after one day options. Most short term option traders avoid the stress of holding last day options going into the final day of their trading. There will always be new action in tomorrows trading session. Let's watch and see what happens.
Post a Comment

Deere Is Coming Out With An Earnings Report On Thursday. It's Wednesday Afternoon.

Here is how the 510 Calls and Puts are trading. The stock is currently trading at $508.84. Last week the stock was up $9.39 cents.Last week's Calls paid off nicely. Earnings come out before the market opens tomorrow.
Now here is it's five day chart as of 2:00 p.m.
Now it's thirty day chart.
Not much action. Both the Call and Put options are expensive. They should be. Deere has a history of moving wildly on the release of earning reports. Here for example is how Deere traded on the day of it's first quarter earnings report earlier this year and what was said at that time. The spike in the chart is the day the earnings report was released.
Now back to today's situation. Notice the 510 Calls for the day are up on the day. It looks like the street is looking for a bounce. What do the $517.50 Calls and the $520.00 Calls look like at 2:23 p.m.? Notice the volume in the Calls is the same as it is in the Puts and that fifteen days ago the stock was trading about $15.00 higher in price. This tells me that the stock will have no issue jumping back up to that price range if the earning report on the opening is good. But wait, we have the tariffs and everything is changing. Farmers are getting hit. Who knows what's going to happen on the opening tomorrow. If the stock goes up it's going to be vote of confidence for the economy. What are the odds of that? Time out. People see options as being dangerous trading vehicles. They are. All options are tough to play.
Yes they are somewhat expensive but these Deere have a part two aspect to them as they don't expire until the following day. A seven or eight dollar jump on the opening would help to move the needle a touch on both the Calls and Puts. These are the riskiest trades in the world to do. This is going to a roller coaster ride. Rides like this happen four times a year. Learn to look for them. Now this.
..............................
Do you know what this is? It's the premarket trading and the stock is down. Let's go back to a look at the Puts yesterday afternoon.
Nobody is playing them. Now a 9:10 a.m. look at the pre-markets.
The morning action has now begun.
Option traders can sometimes find themselves in another world. My next blog might follow up on this same situation.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more

Another Blog On "Vinfast"

Image
There is so much to read about this companies history online. Do your own homework. Their success is not dependent on what ends up happening with their sales in North America. They are nimble. There are plenty of auto factories all over the world now for sale they can acquire. They have dabbled in Australia. Having access to money to keep going doesn't seem to be their problem. Rivian also seems to enjoy this advantage. Vinfast is currently building a new plant in India which could employ thousands of people. That's an emerging new market. New relationships are being built and new investors will be coming onboard. Are option players looking at this stock? Not really if we look at these "one-month-out" Calls. What about Calls further out? What about next January? Here is a look at the three and four series of Calls. Nobody seems willing to bet Vinfast Calls. Now this. Here are two snippets taken from a blog I wrote about this stock back in early December of 2024. ...
Read more