Featured

Bad News On Caterpillar Going Into a Friday.

Here is how the stock traded on a Thursday.There was nothing unusual about the day.
I am suprised they would dump this news on the market going into a Friday trading session. It messes up option traders. Doing this type of an announcement on a Tuesday prior to the markets opening would be a less disruptive day to do this. Here is the news.
In a way this wasn't totally unexpected news. As they said, there were several other recent updates on this issue. Auto companies in their recent quarterly reports were harping on this issue. Look at how it dropped in price in the after market trading.
Now here is how one series of Puts closed the day. Look at how this news totally caught the markets by suprise.
The secrecy of this news is a credit to Caterpillar. If Caterpillar had this news are Deere Call holders going to get worried? Here is what happened on Friday morning.
Now Deere which is now also trying to shake off this bad news. These two stocks tend to trade in similiar ways.
Here are the 435 Puts on Caterpillar at 9:35 a.m.
There is no real volume on them. Everyone was caught by suprise. It will be interesting to see if other companies start to make announcements like this? Should they be? Is this a precursor to more bad news? Now some more late morning action. A second shoe has fallen.
It keeps falling. When can you start thinking about buying the Calls? Here are the one day Calls at 1:03 p.m. followed by what they ended up closing at the end of the day. Why even try to sneak in this kind of a trade? THE TIMING IS TO DIFFICULT.
After the $1.09 mark they slipped down to $.45 but it was difficult to pinpoint a time when the stock would reverse. Next weeks Call options became a safer consideration. Here is a look at the Cat Calls one week out at 12:26 p.m. and at the end of the day. The question at 1:06 p.m was the question of whether or not it's to early to be thinking about a market reversal? At that time that was the million dollar question.
Here is how they closed the day.
Hopefully these Calls will be on a path of recovery starting next week. Here is Caterpillars five day chart at the end of Fridays close.
Let's report back on this on Monday.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Living on Kraft Dinner?

Image
What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Read more

The Little Engine That Could

Image
Walmart again. It's all I seem to blog about. Here is it's five day chart. The stock keeps going up and the option series are set up in one dollar spreads. Even a fifty cent move on the stock moves the needle on these Calls. Look at how this series of Calls was trading yesterday at 3:00 p.m.. Now here is this same series of Calls just before noon today. Thirty days of upward action like this punctuated by the off day of decline. Now notice the higher volume of trading in the series of Calls with the higher striking price. These are the ones's with more leverage. At the same time look at the five day chart on Costco. The two stocks sometimes trade in tandem. Humpty dumpty sat on a wall .... a had a great fall. Someday soon a fall might happen but what a great ride it has been.
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more