Featured

Caterpillar, Deere And Tesla. These Are Scary Times To Be Trading Options On These Stocks.

We are witnessing huge intraday price movements on stocks like Caterpillar, Deere and to a lesser degree Tesla in the last two weeks. Tesla sales are off in Europe as BYD continues to drop off boatloads of new vehicles into countries never before receptive to their offerings. Tesla now has competition. Caterpillar and Deere now have to worry about tariffs. "Market rotations" are now the new theme as investors worry about where to park their money. Caterpillars and Deeres recent meteorological rises are under attact. Silver stocks continue to rise and Bitcoin holders are not sleeping well at night. The price of gold has gone up and is not showing signs of coming off. People are now wondering if they should be lightning up on the weight of their jewerly boxes. Investors holding baskets of stocks now wonder why. Might they wake up one morning to find everything down 20%. Eight hundred point market drops in one day are now shrugged off as being nothing to worry about and they he...
Post a Comment

Could These G.M. Puts Go Up 50% This Week?

Fighting strong stocks is a tough game especially with the indexes seemingly so strong. The Nasdaq Composite ended the holiday week at 23,366 - up 5.8% over four days. The DJIA turned up last week after a four-week slide. Now this.
G.M. only reports it's production numbers on a quarterly basis and it's next report is not due out until 2026. I also know that about six weeks ago G.M. popped on an earnings report.
So why will this week's stock performance be anything different for G.M. than last week? I don't have an exact reason however I just want you to hone in on this series of Puts which expire in two weeks. The open interest in this series of Puts is next to nothing. That's a sign of strenght, not weakness.
Two weeks away is a long time in the option market. I feel that G.M. is overextended as it seems to sell off near the close everyday. Yet then again, what do I know? Attempting to pick the tops of these swings is most often a losing proposition. Monday and a suprise. An afternoon readout.
$1.20 to $1.40 playing options two weeks out is not a good enough trade. Remember however I said it was going to jump on the opening like it always has. Here is a one day chart showing a stronger opening and a dip late on in the trading session.
Had you got in around 10:00 a.m. you could have picked up the Puts in the $1.08 cent range. That would have created a proftable trade. To be continued. Weekends with the it's accompanying Monday morning resets are a good time to figure out Monday trades like this. G.M. closed the day a touch lower.
*** A Tuesday look. Here is that same series of options again. It's not a bad trade if you pick this time to get out.
Here is it's closing five day chart at the end of Tuesday.
Look at how the Puts closed on the day.
Note they never made it to the bid $1.61 ask $1.71 level we saw back at 10:43 a.m.. A final comment. If these were easy options to trade the entire world would be doing it. Obviously they are not but they do pay off in spades when a catch a directional move correctly.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more

Another Blog On "Vinfast"

Image
There is so much to read about this companies history online. Do your own homework. Their success is not dependent on what ends up happening with their sales in North America. They are nimble. There are plenty of auto factories all over the world now for sale they can acquire. They have dabbled in Australia. Having access to money to keep going doesn't seem to be their problem. Rivian also seems to enjoy this advantage. Vinfast is currently building a new plant in India which could employ thousands of people. That's an emerging new market. New relationships are being built and new investors will be coming onboard. Are option players looking at this stock? Not really if we look at these "one-month-out" Calls. What about Calls further out? What about next January? Here is a look at the three and four series of Calls. Nobody seems willing to bet Vinfast Calls. Now this. Here are two snippets taken from a blog I wrote about this stock back in early December of 2024. ...
Read more