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How To Avoid Time Value Traps With Last Week Options.

This blog is not going to be an exhausting study of this topic. I just want to show you a few charts found in recent blogs and comment on which ones seem to skirt the issue of "time-value-concerns' and which ones don't. 1) Avoid Thursday at the close Call options. In this case Thursday is the second last day of the above chart. If you guess the wrong direction on the close it's going to be game over on Friday when the options expire. Thursday at the close on options that expire the next day are the biggest time value traps you can buy into. If the stock moves in the wrong direction it's game over. 2) Ford on a Monday going into Tuesday. On this chart April 13th is a Monday and Tuesday is the 14th. Can you see Ford closing strong on the close of the 13th? It would make sense to get in on the stong closing because these Calls would still have four trading days to recover if Tuesdays opening was not all that spectacular. 3) This time it's Caterpillar and it...
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Tesla Calls - One Way To Look At It. Also Learn That Holding Tesla Call Options Overnight On a Wednesday Going Into A Thursday is Sometimes a Good Strategy

1) Trumph had a spat with Musk back on the 1st of July. This is what happened to the stock's price.
2) This week Musk made some kind of statement about forming a new political party. That caused the stock to reacte.
Now we find ourselves in a Wednesday going into a Thursday morning situation. I don't mind to hold onto overnight options on Tesla on a Wednesday night with only two days of trading life left in them. Look at the price of these Calls and these Puts. They are reasonable premiums to command. Five bucks on the upside ($500.00 U.S) gets you in and $4.00 ($400.00) on the downside gets you in.
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So far so good? Can you understand the moment at hand? Something is going to happen on the opening. It's a seesaw ride. Telsa is going to decide to go up or down. Let me tell you why I think this a situation where the little guy can win. Here are the odds as I see them. This is an opportunity which favors the small guys over the house. Why? Well at 9:30 a.m. all hell is going to break lose as it always does in the first hour of trading. In my eyes the odds are 50-50 you make 50% or more on your money in one hour. Odds are like 75% that Tesla is going to up or down four or five dollars in the first hour or so of trading. Pick which way you think it's going to go and don't hold onto your option position longer than 90 minutes. In fact you might even be able to get out in the premarkets. Sell out on a 50% gain and walk away knowing that this will be a repeatable situation a week down the road. Make it an exercise to keep a weeky tally of how you make out. How do you guess which way it's going to go? You can't really but the odds are pretty good that you are going to make a couple hundred of dollars every time you do it. One more point, you are benefitting from the "time value of the equation" not working against you because everything is going to happen so quickly. It's a sweet spot. I don't want to tell you which way I think it might go. You pick up or down and tommorrow I will show you how it all turned out. This once again is a fair situation to be in. Now here is Tesla in the premarkets at 9:15 a.m. Just over three million shares have traded and the stock is up excatly $6.00. If you had bet for it to go up here is your opportunity to take your profits.
That's what I was talking about. Here is Tesla in the first two minutes of trading.
Here we are at noon.
The options have doubled. *** Telsa closed up 13.99 on the day.
Here is how Tesla closed the week.
Here is now how the 295 series of Calls closed the week. Not a bad return from their $4.95 price two days earlier.

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