Featured

CarMax Puts?

 Here is the number. Call in to listen to their just released quarterly report. You won't have to talk to anyone. It is 800-839-1247. In about five days this link will disappear. Please listen to it. I listened to all of it once and to the first half of it two times. What I learned is that their retail car sales on the quarter compared to the same quarter a year were up 6%. They purchased 336.000 vehicles from the public, up 7% and 48.000 from dealers up 38%. Their average retail sale price was $26,100, down $400.00 per vehicle from last year. They doubled their share buy back program. AI technologies are now helping them operate more efficiently. Everything seems positive. But wait, we are talking about  the used car business and what could happen if consumer confidence suddenly starts to wain? Look at it's three year chart. It now sees to be hitting a rough patch.  Now a one month chart.  All of this talk about tariffs and what level of tariffs will be imposed on n...
Post a Comment

Livewire - It Appears Investors Are Now Giving Up.... Yet On Light Volume Of Trading..

Electric motorcycles - what a great concept. A blast to drive. But wait. They are not really practical because of their range and they are terribly expensive to purchase. Yet if a person had lots of money, a three or four car garage and two or three motorcycles already in it then why not add one of these models to your collection to spice up the mix? Why wait, why not buy one now? One question lingers in the air. Would buying one of this year's models be a trap knowing that next years model or the model the year after that might cost slightly less and most likely to be both superior in design and offer additional driving range? (current mixed use riding is 152 km and more if just in the city). As an example it was announced back in January that another new model was being offered to their product lineup. Maybe adding new models way to add creditability to the voyage they now find themselves on.
If anyone is going to build one, who is it going to be? Harley Davidson would seem to be the obvious answer? The wheels now appear to be falling off this dream because their sales numbers over the last few years have not gained traction. Is now the time to give up coast a little bit to burn lass mony? They really can't give up, if they did it would discredit their reputation. If the range that these bikes were to suddenly quadruple or more then they would sell like hotcakes. If we can send spaceships to the moon, why can't we add more punch to a battery? It takes someone like Harley Davidson who has a vested interest in this space to try and make this happen. Well it's Livewire, not Harley Davidson who is trying to do this but for all intensive purposes the two are the same. Watch now what is happening.
Now a five day chart.
Now a three year chart.
Investors after a long ride seem to be throwing in the towel. Would I be buying long term Calls options on it looking for a rebound? No, there are better things to look at doing. That plus there there is zero interest in playing them. Here are two examples of what I am talking about.
All the while the world is waking up to electric scooters. Amazon is now offering some for $329.00 with free delivery. No one likes owning stocks which are in a state of decline.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Living on Kraft Dinner?

Image
What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Read more

The Little Engine That Could

Image
Walmart again. It's all I seem to blog about. Here is it's five day chart. The stock keeps going up and the option series are set up in one dollar spreads. Even a fifty cent move on the stock moves the needle on these Calls. Look at how this series of Calls was trading yesterday at 3:00 p.m.. Now here is this same series of Calls just before noon today. Thirty days of upward action like this punctuated by the off day of decline. Now notice the higher volume of trading in the series of Calls with the higher striking price. These are the ones's with more leverage. At the same time look at the five day chart on Costco. The two stocks sometimes trade in tandem. Humpty dumpty sat on a wall .... a had a great fall. Someday soon a fall might happen but what a great ride it has been.
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more