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Showing posts from April, 2024

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CarMax Puts?

 Here is the number. Call in to listen to their just released quarterly report. You won't have to talk to anyone. It is 800-839-1247. In about five days this link will disappear. Please listen to it. I listened to all of it once and to the first half of it two times. What I learned is that their retail car sales on the quarter compared to the same quarter a year were up 6%. They purchased 336.000 vehicles from the public, up 7% and 48.000 from dealers up 38%. Their average retail sale price was $26,100, down $400.00 per vehicle from last year. They doubled their share buy back program. AI technologies are now helping them operate more efficiently. Everything seems positive. But wait, we are talking about  the used car business and what could happen if consumer confidence suddenly starts to wain? Look at it's three year chart. It now sees to be hitting a rough patch.  Now a one month chart.  All of this talk about tariffs and what level of tariffs will be imposed on n...
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Earnings on Elli Lilly.

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They were great. Did you miss playing them? Was it a bet to rich to make? There was however an opportunity to profit on it's downside shortly thereafter. Let's begin. ......................... Nice chart, right? Could you have bought the Calls on the closing the day before? Here is how they closed the day before. They closed at $19.31. Anything above $760.00 would be pure profits. The stock went up on the opening to $795.50. But wait. What goes up must come down. Here are the 790 Puts at 10:01 a.m. That was very close to the top of the days trading range. I was watching them. They were at 10.85. The stock at that time was $794.43. If your a short term trader here how things were different at 12:42 p.m. ...... The Puts had a healty move. To be continued.
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Roku Again

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And why option trading on Monday's with one week Calls sometimes work. Roku once again. It's rebounding off last's weeks earnings report. I talked about that in a previous blog. Look at this mornings happenings. Might it be time for a slight jump? Here are the 58 series of Calls in the late morning at 11:38 a.m. Why are these Calls interesting? There is wiggle room to go back up to where it was closer to the opening. What's next? This. Now the chart. Notice how little trading there was in these options after the 1:00 p.m. mark. On ten contracts this would be a tidy trade. **** Here is how they closed the day. **** Now a look at the furthering strength the following morning. ******* It's easy to be an arm chair follower of all this action. Notice this series of Call options stayed strong for the entire previous afternoon? That sometimes makes it a good bet that they will open stronger on the following opening. Yet not always.
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Roku Jumped in Anticipation Of A Good Earnings Report

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Only to fall again. Look at this five and thirty day chart. ................................................... Yet thats only part of the story. Look at it's year to date chart. How bad was their earnings report? Do you think their pain and suffering is all now behind them? The stock is down 38% on the year. All I know is that they still seem to be making a pile of money. On a different note and in a different industry a stock named "First Solar" was stuck in neutral a few months back because interest rates where to seemingly high and companies in that industry were cutting back on the size and number of projects they were working on. Since that time and for whatever reason the stock in on fire. Both Boeing and Caterpillar also crashed last week on earning report releases. There seemed to be a hint of danger present in both companies releases. It's almost as if there was a domino effect. Next question? Why is Netflix gettng beat up? Look at it's chart. Is ...
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Caterpillar - It's First Quarter Earnings Report

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Boeing rallied yesterday on the release of it's earnings report only then to tank. Caterpillar is tanking this morning in the premarkets. Let's begin with it's 5 day and 30 day chart. ... The world needs to be rebuilt and Caterpillar is there to help. It's growing, it's got a good reputation, it's not laying off employees and it's doing just fine. If it misses a beat on it's earnings report so what? Life goes on. Then there are those pesky analyst who are known to offer a convoluted spin on things. If you like Caterpillar just buy it on the dips and put it away. So the markets will be opening on the commentary by the companies C.E.O of "sales about flat". Phrasing it that way is a recipe for short term disaster. ..... The two printouts above show some of the early morning action in one Put series and in One Call series. What happened the next day? A slight rebound with next to no traders trying to capitalize on a rebound. What does this tell ...
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Boeing Is A Strange Animal

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Last week I got caught in the mud following Boeing all week. It basically went sideways and ended up being the 17th most activity traded stock on the NYSE "Most Active List" by dollar volume and up .27 cents on the week. The Dow rose only 3 points on the week. Here now is how the Boeing 170 Call options started this week, twenty minutes into the trading action. Here now on Wednesday April 24th is a look at it's most recent five day chart. So here is the thing. The 170 Calls closed Tuesday (yesterday) at $4.75 with the "open interest" numbers going up. Yes the stock has swings but who wants to shell out that much money for an "out-of-the-money" Call option with only three days trading life left in them? Compare this to my last blog on Lowe's where the chart screamed the stock was going up. I am including that chart again. Yesterday as shown in the chart the stock went up and the option series I illustrated doubled in one day. Now this. Why are th...
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Playing The Charts and Forgetting Everything Else

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Lowe's. Look at this chart. Forget trying to understand if their business model is getting better. Four trading sessions to go and these units are "out-of-the-money" Calls. What's going to happen? Here is the Tuesday's action. Now here is what the chart looked like and what the markets did on the day. Do I like playing options on Lowes. Not really. Actually I very much dislike them. It's a difficult industry to understand with all to many variables coming into play. In this case it's chart made these options a compelling buy. Tomorrows story is anyones guess.
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