Featured

Step Down Charts And Short Term Options. Nio

Here is a classic "step-down-chart" with one minute of daytime trading life left in them before the markets close at 4:00 p.m.. The stock is Nio. ... This printout of "in-the-money" Call option also shows one minute of trading life in them before the market closes. It's Tuesday and these Calls expire this coming Friday. You are purchasing three days of market trading life. To purchase one thousand shares of this stock would cost you $5,750.00. To purchase options that control the price movement of one thousad shares of this stock for three trading sessions would cost you $370.00. ( Ten contracts at $.37 each). These Calls are also currently $250.00 "in-the-money" which means if the stock totally goes flat for the next three days your options will still have that amount of intrinsic value left in them. Now think about this. Many option accounts in the U.S. enjoy free option trading and there are discount brokers in Canada who can save you money. A fl...
Post a Comment

How To Avoid Time Value Traps With Last Week Options.

This blog is not going to be an exhausting study of this topic. I just want to show you a few charts found in recent blogs and comment on which ones seem to skirt the issue of "time-value-concerns' and which ones don't. 1)
Avoid Thursday at the close Call options. In this case Thursday is the second last day of the above chart. If you guess the wrong direction on the close it's going to be game over on Friday when the options expire. Thursday at the close on options that expire the next day are the biggest time value traps you can buy into. If the stock moves in the wrong direction it's game over. 2) Ford on a Monday going into Tuesday.
On this chart April 13th is a Monday and Tuesday is the 14th. Can you see Ford closing strong on the close of the 13th? It would make sense to get in on the stong closing because these Calls would still have four trading days to recover if Tuesdays opening was not all that spectacular. 3) This time it's Caterpillar and it's kind on the same thing. A strong close on a Tuesday and no worries about time value issues if you caught this stock spiking on Wednesday morning.
4) Nio, the Chinese EV maker. It's the same thing. An upward closing on a Monday and a pop on Tuesday morning.
No worries here about dissipating time value premiums. 5) Now here is a slight variation on the same thing. Look at the Avis Budget chart with March 27th being a Friday. Look at how the stock closed strongly that day.
On Monday it dipped and it wasn't until late Tuesday when it started to come back. After that it was clear upward sailing. My point is that with five trading days to go in short term option trading the "time-value-trap" associated with holding short term options is not that big of a concern. ( P.S. Imagine holding Avis Calls over the last few weeks.) It was up $44.88 last Friday and $193.92 on the week. Here is it's 30 day chart.
It's a short squeeze.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more

News on Polestar , Lucid (Trading After A Reverse Stock Split) Plus Ford News And Vinfast

Image
Look at the one year chart on Polester. Now it's one month chart. What's going on? It's confusing. It was down $.36 cents on the week. If you want you can spend $.20 or $.25 on Puts and hope that the company goes under in the next five or six months. They recently raised more money by releasing more shares so it's running out of options. You can't run at a loss forever and this news will most likely scare off potential new car buyers. This actually is a low number of outstanding Put options. The consensus seems to be that it is not game over yet. Lucid started trading this week on a "one-for-ten" reverse stock split. Here is its one week chart. It was down $1.39 on the week. It's also going to struggle. Both of these stocks have challenges ahead. On a more positive note here is a chart that looks kind of perky. Ford on the week. The stock was down $.03 cents on the week and it was the 3th highest in share volume trading on the NYSE. It appears...
Read more