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Showing posts from May, 2025

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CarMax Puts?

 Here is the number. Call in to listen to their just released quarterly report. You won't have to talk to anyone. It is 800-839-1247. In about five days this link will disappear. Please listen to it. I listened to all of it once and to the first half of it two times. What I learned is that their retail car sales on the quarter compared to the same quarter a year were up 6%. They purchased 336.000 vehicles from the public, up 7% and 48.000 from dealers up 38%. Their average retail sale price was $26,100, down $400.00 per vehicle from last year. They doubled their share buy back program. AI technologies are now helping them operate more efficiently. Everything seems positive. But wait, we are talking about  the used car business and what could happen if consumer confidence suddenly starts to wain? Look at it's three year chart. It now sees to be hitting a rough patch.  Now a one month chart.  All of this talk about tariffs and what level of tariffs will be imposed on n...

Trying To Make Costco Options Impossible To Play That Expire In One Day.

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This was a special situation. A quarterly earning report coming out on the eve of one day options. With five days in every trading week the odds of that situation happening are only like twenty percent.  Some companies, more in tune with the potential for market manipulations will avoid earning report releases on Thursday afternoons for this very  reason. For some option players the event of  having one day options reacting to quarterly earning reports is like waiting for Christmas morning. Especially on stocks in the $1,000 dollar range. First the Puts on a Thursday morning at 9:52 a.m.. These are Puts which are $9.75 "out-of-the-money" with one day of trading life to go before they expire. Look at how crazy expensive they are. The stock would have to drop $21.00 in Thursday and Fridays trading just to break even. Earning reports will be coming out at 5:00 p.m. (on a Thursday - today) which is after the market closes. The fireworks will start in the next morning when the...

Boeing Has Gotten Expensive Lately

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 It might start making money again. Here is it's five day cart. On Monday May 22th  the markets jumped up over 800 points and Boeing was down. Monday was May 27th.  Here is Thursdays chart. If you look at the chart you can see some traders got in on the opening on Call options near the previous day's closing price. Then these Calls jumped up explosively on the day. Why it happened. Well their CEO made a speech. He stated that the company is making a come back. Why the stock didn't open a few dollars higher the following morning rather that having a limp opening is something I don't know. Is it to late to play it for a continued rebound tomorrow, a Friday? Here is how the $202.50 Calls closed the day which is a Thursday. The "open interest" number is fairly high. Now the $207.50 Calls which are just a touch "out-of-the-money" Calls. It was good news that caused this stock to go up. If the market opens stronger these "one-day-out" options cou...

Livewire - Again - Joby Aviation - Unusual Machines

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 From the verge of extinction to new life. It all happen with a few sentences offering guidance. The strange thing is that this news came out May 1st. One dollar to three dollars in a couple of days. Why is this when the last real news about things was back on May 1st? Management is guilty doing a terrible marketing job over the last few years. But wait. It was public news for the last little while that a police department was experimenting with their electric bikes. If nothing else the use of this electric vehicles would be a moral booster to the lucky cops who got to play on them. What happens if more police departments agree to experiment  with these bikes? I followed this situation but stayed away. One dollar stocks are dangerous. Now here is it's three year chart. While the companies fortunes may be changing I still will be staying away. I missed the boat. That's life. Here is one look at one series of it's next week options. To be continued. A second stock with a  ...

Towards Understanding The Exuberance Of A Three Day Weekend

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 It's a Tuesday morning and the markets are opening after a three day weekend.  The gates are being opened and the mice are being let out. Investors with bags of money are scurrying around looking to  find things to buy. The DJIA index is up in the first thirty minutes of trading. So what to do? Why not look at two stocks that are the mornings rising stars and play them the opposite way. Why not cash in on the euphoria of the markets subsiding?  Is such an approach logical or merely wishful thinking? Tesla  jumped on the opening. New models styles are coming and their European sales are down. Here is how it jumped. Now here is how one series of it's Puts that expire this Friday are trading. Now Netflix. It also jumped on the opening. Here is the same kind of look at one series of it's Puts which also expire this Friday. So now what? It's difficult to fight a rising market when both the DJIA and the Nasdaq are both surging. If only one index are surging then the ...