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Showing posts from December, 2023

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Caravan On A Monday Opening Rally

Let's start with the action on Carvana back at the start of the week. Here is it's mid afternoon chart on Monday. The stock is up $23.00 on the day! When you see stocks move up like this you sometimes wonder why there isn't more profit taking at the end of the trading session. . Now let's jump forward to Wednesday afternoon with tomorrow being a holiday. Carvana is up. How much? Well about $28.00 more dollars in two days! The word on the street is that their main competitor "Carmax" is in trouble. Here it how it has traded in the last thirty days. It had a bit of a dip but seems to be coming back. Avis Budget Group, also shown below the same thing. Hertz in the last three months has also struggled. So back now to Carvana. It's on fire this week. Buying Puts now that expire on Friday would be kind of dumb. Yet then again the stock could swing $15.00 or more in only a few hours! It's a bet on catching the right directon. Now here is a wildcard facto...
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A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

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Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
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