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Showing posts from December, 2023

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Another Attempt To Explain Exxon Options.

There are times I feel safer playing Exxon Call and Put options than I do playing options on other companies. Why? Well today this happened and the options didn't move to much. What the heck was all that stuff? It was information that flows. It's humbling to read it. There are so many parts in motion which somehow mesh together to create a price. What I like about trading Exxon is that when it moves, it moves quickly. That plus when it does move the options on them move a chunk at a time. That can be a good thing. Here is Exxon's five day chart. It's had some recent really big moves. I picked something difficult. Two series of options on Exxon that expire at 3:00 p.m. tomorow. Here is how they closed today, a Thursday. Let's be clear. This is not a situation I would like to be in. Is the stock going to jump in price on the opening? That's the question. I note that there are four times more Calls outstanding than there are Puts. It's not uncommon to see...

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

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Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...