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Showing posts from December, 2023

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Caterpillar Is Misdirected.

It's five day and one day chart. It dipped on the opening this morning and the 'buy-on-the-dips' mentality won again. Like a $7.00 interday jump in one series of it's Call options as witnessed on the second chart below. Now it's 30 day chart. This is madness. How can a stock keep going up? Now this, a chart borrowed from a Caterpillar blog I posted on December 26th. That wasn't that long ago. It tells a different story. It shows Caterpillar dropping thirty dollars in one morning! So here we are now in a situation where Caterpillar is up $30.00 in three trading sessions. So here we are in the premarkets on Wednesday morning. Wednesdays can be good days for market reversals. Here are the 630 series of Puts that expire this Friday. The open interest in them as with all of Caterpillars options are very low. The stock given given it's premarket pricing is expected to open slightly lower than it's closing price. This $600.00 dollar pricing is in $U.S. ...
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A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

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Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
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