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Showing posts from August, 2022

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CarMax Puts?

 Here is the number. Call in to listen to their just released quarterly report. You won't have to talk to anyone. It is 800-839-1247. In about five days this link will disappear. Please listen to it. I listened to all of it once and to the first half of it two times. What I learned is that their retail car sales on the quarter compared to the same quarter a year were up 6%. They purchased 336.000 vehicles from the public, up 7% and 48.000 from dealers up 38%. Their average retail sale price was $26,100, down $400.00 per vehicle from last year. They doubled their share buy back program. AI technologies are now helping them operate more efficiently. Everything seems positive. But wait, we are talking about  the used car business and what could happen if consumer confidence suddenly starts to wain? Look at it's three year chart. It now sees to be hitting a rough patch.  Now a one month chart.  All of this talk about tariffs and what level of tariffs will be imposed on n...
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Snowflake Call Options

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Snowflake is a company valued at 1.22 billion. It's a California based company, a cloud data provider. A Silicon Valley high tech story. What I know is that "Barron's" recently did an extensive article on this company and I know the stock trades in an erratic manner. Here is it's chart this morning just after an earnings report release. So what you might say. I understand. It's a situation outside the realm of most option traders. They are expensive options to purchase. Look for example at this readout from exactly one month ago. It shows the stock down on the day to $131.55 and the 131.00 Call options series on them which had three weeks to go before expiring. Many option traders are not willing to pay the premiums incurred with buying that much time. Notice the then current price of $740.00 per contract. Who wants to pay that much for just one contract? Not very many traders. In hindsight, these options ended up tripling in price! All of this brings us t...
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Canadian Owned Electrameccanica. Another Look At It. Also a One Year Later Comment.

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Zoom, zoom goes this little electic vehicle. It's a one seater with only three wheels cruising in a lane reserved for two people cars. Their new factory to build them in is soon to be finished. It's in the U.S.. So much for investing on home turf. Earning reports just came out. I have talked about this company before. Go to their website and listen to a ten minute company report. Everything seems very upbeat. If they can ramp up their production to 20,000 units a year everyone including investors will be happy. Pick the model stlye you like and pick the color. Go to their website and give them your credit card number. A deposit of $250.00 will put you on the buyers list. But wait, Frank Stonach has plans for his three wheeled "Carit" to be built in Ontario. Before you make a decision on any three wheeled companies future you might want to check out some of the driver's reviews found on the internet. They are not the safest vehicles around. Other parts of the wo...
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Walmart Shines on Earnings Reports

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Look at this chart. It's the five day chart on Walmart leading into this morning's opening bell. Walmart releases it's second quarter eanings report before the opening bell. But wait, look at this chart.This wasn't that long ago. Walmart at times can stumble. Do consumers, hit by inflation have money to spend? Now also look at this one. My point is that if you guess the wrong way on Walmart you will get burnt. So now how are the cards stacked up this morning waiting for this earnings report? Here is a look at two close to the money Calls and Puts. So here is what happened about twenty minutes after the opening bell. The Puts got obliterated. The real winners were all the Call option purchasers who got in a few days ago. Here is how this option series closed the day. Why did happen this way? In a way Walmart's results act as a barometer of how the U.S. economy is doing. It's mainstream in a different way than Costco. Opportunities to make a judgement call li...
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500 Point Daily Moves

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Trying to understand option trading on a Wednesday when 500 point daily swings in the market are the near norm is a challenge. Look at these five stocks and their five day charts. A lot is going to happen in the next two days and the gamble is if the markets go flat or go up just a little bit or if they go flat or go down you're going to lose. Looking at it that way it's best just to stay away. Look at the low Call volume on Boeing, Deere, Snowflake, Caterpiller and Ford. Next to nothing really. Why? Well traders don't get a second chance playing short term Call options if the markets suddenly start to go against them. It's like flipping a coin. Well it's worse than that. Your playing against computer generated logarithms which will eat you alive. That's why many option traders take holidays or reset days when the markets get this crazy. Option trading is all about taking resets. Pausing and then looking for things more comfortable to watch like the coming of e...
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